Dalton Schultz or Darren Waller: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Dalton Schultz and Darren Waller grade out even this week. Schultz's best edge is the game script (25.0 implied points to 22.3), Waller's best edge is the projection (10.1 to 9.0) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz

TE21HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· low
Darren Waller

Darren Waller

TECARvs DET

Projected Points

Start· medium

Dalton Schultz’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+115 / -147
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 40.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+230
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Darren Waller’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-122 / -104
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 37.5
-110 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+195
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DET@
CARSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Dalton Schultz

Start· low

TE1 in high-volume pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover over the middle with sure hands.

22% target share in an offense implied for 25.0 points gives Schultz a usable floor, though his TE21 consensus rank sits outside TE1 range.

  • DAL ranks 21 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 25.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 63% snap share.

The call

  • Usage is the selling point. A 22% target share through 3 games is strong volume for a tight end, and he carries no injury designation.
  • Game environment helps. An implied team total of 25.0 as a 2.5-point favorite points to a productive, balanced script with scoring chances.
  • The matchup is mildly favorable at 21 of 32 against the position. It rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it adds little.
  • The risk is his ceiling. A 63% snap share and a 9.0-point projection at TE21 make him a streaming-level start. Any healthy top-12 tight end should start over him.

Latest on Schultz

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Darren Waller

Start· medium

Backup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.

10.1-point projection is TE1-range, and DET grades 32 of 32 vs TEs. A 43% snap share keeps this from being a lock.

  • DET ranks 32 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 43% snap share.

The call

  • Matchup: DET ranks 32 of 32 in DvP vs tight ends, the softest in the league. It is only a 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so treat it as a tailwind, not a guarantee.
  • Production: CBS Sports (2026-09-29) reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets through three games, with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs. A 10.1 PPR projection clears a typical replacement-level TE.
  • Risk: a 43% snap share and 12% target share are thin for a starting TE. Part of his output has come from two TDs, so his floor is shaky.
  • Game environment: a 22.3 implied team total gives him reasonable scoring chances. We lean start over the house toss-up because of the projection plus the matchup. Bench him only if you have a TE with a full-time role.

Latest on Waller

Role

Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.

CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026
Fantasy football last-minute pickups for Week 4: Raymond, Waller among top options

If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.

ESPN · Oct 3, 2026
Panthers' Bryce Young to Darren Waller has been money in red zone

The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.

ESPN · Sep 24, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDalton SchultzDarren Waller
Projected points
Consensus rankTE21—
Opponent vs positionDAL · 21 of 323-game sampleDET · 32 of 323-game sample
Receptions19 of 3232 of 32
Receiving Yards19 of 3232 of 32
Receiving TDs27 of 3232 of 32
Targets13 of 3232 of 32
Anytime TD26 of 3232 of 32
Target share22%12%
Reception share26%14%
Implied total · spread25.0-2.522.3+3.0
Depth chartTE1TE2
Snap share63%43%
Start/Sit record0–1—

Recent form

Dalton Schultz — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Darren Waller — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CLE
Week 2vs ATL
Week 1vs CHI

Signal breakdown

  • 9.0 vs 10.1 projected PPR pointsDarren Waller +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 32 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
  • Implied 25.0 vs 22.3 team pointsDalton Schultz +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 63% vs 43% snap shareDalton Schultz +

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