Bears D/ST or Raiders D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start the Bears — the opponent scoring and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Bears D/ST faces the lower-scoring offense (18.5 implied points to 24.5) and projects 6.3 to the Raiders's 3.7. No signal favors the Raiders this week. The gap is wide.

Bears D/ST

D/STCHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium

Raiders D/ST

D/STLVvs KC

Projected Points

Sit
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
KC@
LVSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Bears D/ST

Start· medium

DST11 at home as 8.5-point favorites vs a Jets offense implied for just 18.5 and allowing 3.0 sacks per game. A solid streaming start.

  • NYJ's offense gives up 3.0 sacks and 0.3 turnovers a game, near league average.
  • Vegas has NYJ at 18.5 points as 8.5-point dogs.
  • Under-started: only 10% of leagues have them in, 22nd among defenses, against a No. 11 matchup.

The call

  • The 6.3-point projection ranks DST11 of 32, inside the startable tier for a 12-team league. Only 10% of leagues start the Bears (crowd rank 22), so the crowd is underrating them.
  • Game script favors Chicago. At home, -8.5, with the Jets implied for 18.5, the Jets should be chasing and throwing into pass-rush pressure.
  • The sack floor is real. The Jets allow 3.0 sacks per game, and the Bears project for 2.9 sacks and 0.7 interceptions.
  • Turnover upside is the risk. The Jets give the ball away only 0.3 times per game over 3 games, and the 20.5 projected points allowed caps the ceiling. Keep this one in the medium-confidence stream tier.

Why Raiders D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 26): KC protects the ball (0.7 turnovers a game), and Vegas has them at 24.5 points.

  • KC's offense gives up 1.3 sacks and 0.7 turnovers a game, below league average.
  • Vegas has KC at 24.5 points as 5.5-point favorites.
  • Over-started: 5% of leagues have them in, 23rd among defenses, against a No. 26 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

MetricBears D/STRaiders D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST11Proj.DST26
Started in10% of leagues5% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game3.01.3
Opponent turnovers / game0.30.7
Opponent implied total18.524.5
Home / awayHomeHome
Start/Sit record1–10–0+2 toss-ups

Recent form

Bears D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Raiders D/ST — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs NO
Week 2vs LAC
Week 1vs MIA

Signal breakdown

  • 6.3 vs 3.7 projected PPR pointsBears D/ST +
  • Started rank 22 vs 23 (10% vs 5% of leagues)Bears D/ST +
  • 3.0 sacks / 0.3 TO vs 1.3 sacks / 0.7 TO per game allowedBears D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 18.5 vs 24.5 pointsBears D/ST +
  • Home vs Homeeven

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