Brandon Aubrey or Harrison Mevis: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Aubrey's extra attempt and cleaner track record edge out Mevis in a tight kicker call

Aubrey gets the nod not because either offense is stalling more in the red zone — they're identical there — but because Dallas is projected to run through him one more time this week, and volume is the lifeblood of kicker scoring. His long-range track record with seven 50-plus makes this season also means a stalled drive near midfield is still points, where Mevis with just one make from distance needs the offense to get closer. Mevis's superior accuracy rate is thinner sample size than it looks, and the Rams' slightly heavier implied total doesn't offset the attempt gap. This is close, but the consensus rank gap mirrors real weekly-lineup usage, not just projection noise.

What flips it: A late scratch of Aubrey's long-range role or a Dallas game plan that leans run-heavy near the goal line.

AI editor

Brandon Aubrey

Brandon Aubrey

K1DALvs NYG

Projected Points

Start
Harrison Mevis

Harrison Mevis

K6LARvs SF

Projected Points

Start

Why Brandon Aubrey

Start

Starting placekicker with elite long-range leg. Pro Bowl-caliber accuracy from distance.

Start — K1 by consensus, projects K2 this week: 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.6 red-zone stalls a game.

  • An extra projected FG attempt matters more than the marginal points gap — attempts are the real currency at kicker.
  • His 50-plus track record turns Dallas red-zone stalls into points instead of missed opportunities.

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Place kicker with strong-leg profile. Limited NFL sample in spot-duty role.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

  • Mevis's accuracy rate looks better, but it's built on a much smaller sample of attempts this season.
  • The Rams' higher implied total offers a touch more scoring cushion if the game turns into a shootout.

Head-to-head stats

MetricBrandon AubreyHarrison Mevis
Projected points
Consensus rankK1K6
Projected FG attempts2.32.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.6(2025)1.6(2025)
Implied total · spread25.0-1.525.8-3.0
Field-goal %85.7%(2025)92.3%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 9.9 vs 9.4 projected PPR pointsBrandon Aubrey +
  • Rank 1 vs 6Brandon Aubrey +
  • 2.3 vs 2.0 projected attemptsBrandon Aubrey +
  • 1.6 vs 1.6 red-zone stalls per gameeven
  • Kicking weathereven
  • Implied 25.0 vs 25.8 team pointsHarrison Mevis +
  • No injury designationseven

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