Brandon Aubrey or Daniel Carlson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Aubrey — the consensus rank and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.
Brandon Aubrey is the higher consensus play (K1 to K21) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.0 to 0.7 per game). Carlson's edge is the game script, 24.0 implied points to 22.5. The gap is comfortable.
Brandon Aubrey
9.59.59.5 Projected Points
Daniel Carlson
8.98.98.9 Projected Points
Why Brandon Aubrey
StartStarting K with elite leg strength. Reliable from extreme distance and on kickoffs.
Start — K1 by consensus, projects K3 this week: 1.0 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.5 pts projected vs HOU.
- 10 mph wind at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed) — a real drag on long tries.
- 2.3 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- DAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has DAL at 22.5 points as 2.5-point dogs.
Latest on Aubrey
Being an NFL kicker means paying attention to even the smallest details and, as Brandon Aubrey and the Cowboys head to Brazil, that means sticking to his usual plan.
The first matchup of the 2026 season between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders is littered with headlines as the bitter rivals square off to ruin the other's week.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Daniel Carlson
Toss-Up· lowVeteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.
Dome, a 24.0 implied total and -2.5 favorite status support a start, but a K21 consensus rank sits outside the 12-team starting tier.
- Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
- 2.2 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- NO's offense stalls in the red zone 0.7 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has NO at 24 points as 2.5-point favorites.
The call
- The environment is kicker-friendly. He kicks indoors with no weather risk, his team's implied total is 24.0, and his team is a -2.5 favorite. That supports the 1.8 projected field goals and 2.5 extra points behind an 8.9-point projection.
- The leg is not in question: 50-plus makes in 4 games and a long of 60. He is the locked-in PK1 with no designation, and the model's start-lean has a real basis.
- The counterweight is concrete. Consensus has him at K21, well outside the 12 kickers started in this format. His offense stalls in the red zone only 0.7 times per game, over a 3-game sample, which limits extra field-goal chances. His 82% accuracy (22/27) is middling.
- What tips it: start him if your waiver alternatives rank below him or play outdoors in bad weather. If a kicker ranked inside roughly the top 14 is available, take that option instead.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Brandon Aubrey | Daniel Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.59.59.5 | 8.98.98.9 |
| Consensus rank | K1 | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Kicking conditions | 10 mph wind forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather) | Indoors, no weather risk |
| Implied total · spread | 22.5+2.5 | 24.0-2.5 |
| Field-goal % | 85.7%(2025) | 81.5%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0 | 0–0+2 toss-ups |
Recent form
Brandon Aubrey — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs BAL | 10.010.010.0 |
| Week 2 | vs WSH | 17.017.017.0 |
| Week 1 | vs NYG | 2.02.02.0 |
Daniel Carlson — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs LV | 3.03.03.0 |
| Week 2 | vs BAL | 13.013.013.0 |
| Week 1 | vs DET | 5.05.05.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.5 vs 8.9 projected PPR pointsBrandon Aubrey +
- Rank 1 vs 21Brandon Aubrey +
- 2.3 vs 2.2 projected attemptsBrandon Aubrey +
- 1.0 vs 0.7 red-zone stalls per gameBrandon Aubrey +
- 10 mph, 87°F, clear vs domeDaniel Carlson +
- Implied 22.5 vs 24.0 team pointsDaniel Carlson +
- No injury designationseven
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