Brandon Aubrey or Daniel Carlson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Aubrey — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Brandon Aubrey is the higher consensus play (K1 to K21) and projects 9.7 to Carlson's 8.8. Carlson's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.5 to 1.0 stalls per game. The gap is comfortable.
Brandon Aubrey
9.79.79.7 Projected Points
Daniel Carlson
8.88.88.8 Projected Points
Why Brandon Aubrey
StartStarting K with elite leg strength. Reliable from extreme distance and on kickoffs.
Start — K1 by consensus, projects K2 this week: 1.0 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.7 pts projected vs BAL.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.3 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- DAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has DAL at 24.5 points as 2.5-point dogs.
Latest on Aubrey
Being an NFL kicker means paying attention to even the smallest details and, as Brandon Aubrey and the Cowboys head to Brazil, that means sticking to his usual plan.
The first matchup of the 2026 season between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders is littered with headlines as the bitter rivals square off to ruin the other's week.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Daniel Carlson
Toss-Up· mediumVeteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.
Dome game, 23.0 implied total and 2.2 projected FGA give a clean floor, but K21 consensus rank puts him just outside the 12-team starter tier.
- Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
- 2.2 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- NO's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has NO at 23 points as 3.5-point favorites.
The call
- Environment is as good as it gets for a kicker: indoors with no weather risk, 82% accuracy (22/27) and a 50-plus make in 4 games with a 60-yard long, so the deep tries are live.
- Volume is the question — 1.8 FGs on 2.2 attempts plus 2.5 extra points off a 23.0 implied total is a middling 8.9-point projection, and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game is the main source of FG chances rather than a high-scoring script.
- Role is locked (PK1, no injury designation), so nothing here is a health or usage risk — it is purely a tier question at K21.
- Tip-in: if your alternative is a kicker outdoors or attached to a team with an implied total under ~22, start Carlson; if you have a top-12 kicker in a similar dome, sit him.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Brandon Aubrey | Daniel Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.79.79.7 | 8.88.88.8 |
| Consensus rank | K1 | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.0 | 1.5(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Indoors, no weather risk |
| Implied total · spread | 24.5+2.5 | 23.0-3.5 |
| Field-goal % | 85.7%(2025) | 81.5%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Brandon Aubrey — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs WSH | 17.017.017.0 |
| Week 1 | vs NYG | 2.02.02.0 |
Daniel Carlson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs BAL | 13.013.013.0 |
| Week 1 | vs DET | 5.05.05.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.7 vs 8.8 projected PPR pointsBrandon Aubrey +
- Rank 1 vs 21Brandon Aubrey +
- 2.3 vs 2.2 projected attemptsBrandon Aubrey +
- 1.0 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
- 6 mph, 72°F, overcast vs domeeven
- Implied 24.5 vs 23.0 team pointsBrandon Aubrey +
- No injury designationseven
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