Tony Pollard or Woody Marks: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Pollard — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Tony Pollard is the higher consensus play (RB28 to RB44) and projects 11.8 to Marks's 8.3. Marks's edge is the game script, 25.0 implied points to 19.5. The gap is comfortable.

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard

RB28TENvs BAL

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
Woody Marks

Woody Marks

RB44HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Sit

Tony Pollard’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 47.5
-111 / -113
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
-173 / +135
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 8.5
-115 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+220
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Woody Marks’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 33.5
-112 / -112
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
-133 / +105
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 9.5
-119 / -105
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+200
Anytime Touchdown Props →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Tony Pollard

Toss-Up· low

RB1 and lead back. One-cut zone runner with breakaway speed and 1,000-yard workload.

RB28 at 11.8 projected is flex-borderline; a 53% snap share and an 8.5-point spread with a 19.5 team total cap his ceiling.

  • BAL ranks 15 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 19.5 team points as 8.5-point underdogs.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share.

The call

  • Projection of 11.8 PPR points and an RB28 consensus rank put him just outside RB2 range in 12-team leagues, so he is a FLEX consideration rather than a locked starter.
  • The matchup is neutral: BAL ranks 15 of 32 in the DvP composite, but that is a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle much either way.
  • Game script is the main concern. If the 8.5-point spread has his team as the underdog, a 19.5 implied total suggests limited scoring chances and fewer early-down carries.
  • His 53% snap share is a committee-level role. A 9% target share gives him some PPR floor if the game turns pass-heavy. Start him over replacement options with a smaller role, but bench him for a flex with a clearer workload or a better game environment.

Why Woody Marks

Sit

RB2 behind David Montgomery. Between-the-tackles committee back who carried 196 times for 703 yards as a rookie with light pass-game usage.

Sit — bench-tier RB at consensus RB44: 7% target share, 8.3 PPR projected vs DAL.

  • DAL ranks 21 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 25.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 45% snap share.

Head-to-head stats

MetricTony PollardWoody Marks
Projected points
Consensus rankRB28RB44
Opponent vs positionBAL · 15 of 323-game sampleDAL · 21 of 323-game sample
Rushing Yards12 of 3228 of 32
Rushing TDs25 of 3225 of 32
Rushing Attempts11 of 3229 of 32
Receptions17 of 329 of 32
Receiving Yards3 of 328 of 32
Anytime TD20 of 3225 of 32
Target share9%7%
Reception share11%10%
Implied total · spread19.5+8.525.0-2.5
Depth chartRB1RB2
Snap share53%45%
Start/Sit record0–0+4 toss-ups—

Recent form

Tony Pollard — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs NYG
Week 2vs PHI
Week 1vs NYJ

Woody Marks — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Signal breakdown

  • 11.8 vs 8.3 projected PPR pointsTony Pollard +
  • Rank 28 vs 44Tony Pollard +
  • Opponent DvP rank 15 vs 21 (32 = softest)Woody Marks +
  • Implied 19.5 vs 25.0 team pointsWoody Marks +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 53% vs 45% snap shareTony Pollard +

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