Spencer Shrader or Will Reichard: Who Should You Start?

The call

• The environment is clean: retractable roof with a calm forecast either way, so no wind or precipitation risk on his 2.1 projected attempts, and he's been 93% (13/14) on the year with a long of 52.
• Scoring opportunity is fine but not special — 23.0 implied total, 2.0 projected extra points and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game, which is what gets him to 1.8 made field goals.
• The problem is the tier: 8.2 projected points and a K18 consensus rank mean he's outside the 12 kickers a standard league actually starts, so he's not clearly better than a replacement option.
• He's the PK1 with no injury designation, so role isn't the issue — if your alternative sits in a worse weather spot or on an offense with a lower implied total, Shrader is the play.

The call

• No weather variable at all: indoors in a dome, so the 94% accuracy (33/35) and 62-yard long both play fully, including from 50-plus where he's already connected in 9 games.
• Minnesota's 1.3 red-zone stalls per game is the kicker's best friend — it converts drives into the projected 2.1 attempts rather than touchdowns, and he's the locked-in PK1 with no designation.
• A 21.5 implied total in a 1.5-point game means enough offense for 2.0 extra points on top of the field goals; the script isn't so lopsided that he gets frozen out.
• Only real knock is the K13 consensus rank — he's right at the 12-team cut line, so a truly elite dome kicker on your bench would be a reasonable swap, but 8.4 projected clears replacement level.