Spencer Shrader or Tyler Loop: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Loop — the consensus rank and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.

Tyler Loop is the higher consensus play (K11 to K21) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.9 to 1.4 per game). Shrader's edge is attempt volume, 2.1 to 2.0 projected attempts. The gap is comfortable.

Spencer Shrader

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs BAL

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Tyler Loop

Tyler Loop

K11BALvs IND

Projected Points

Start· medium
BAL@
INDSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
BAL@
INDSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Spencer Shrader

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

K17 at 8.2 projected: dome, 93% accuracy and a 23.0 implied total are fine, but the reported kicking competition caps confidence in the job.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.

The call

  • Environment is a plus: retractable roof with a calm forecast either way, so no wind or precipitation tax on a 1.8-of-2.1 field-goal projection plus 2.0 extra points.
  • Volume is only adequate — 23.0 implied team total and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game give him a real but unspectacular floor, which is why he lands at K17 rather than a set-and-forget starter.
  • Job security is the swing factor: he's listed PK1 with no designation, but colts.com (2026-08-23) described him as "in a close kicking competition," and only one 50-plus make (long 52) means limited bonus-range upside.
  • Tipping point: if he's confirmed as the unquestioned kicker on game week, the indoor script makes him a fine streaming start; any hint of a shared job and you take a top-12 kicker instead.

Latest on Shrader

Role

Spencer Shrader remains in a close kicking competition after making both of his field-goal attempts in the game.

5 Colts Things: Seth McGowan, Spencer Shrader, CJ Allen and other notes from preseason Week 2colts.com · Aug 23, 2026
For Spencer Shrader, the kicking battle was not just against another player

Shrader was, and remains, the only kicker on the Colts' initial 53-man roster when it was released Sunday.

colts.com · Sep 4, 2026
Spencer Shrader wins Colts' kicking competition

Shrader connected on field goals from 60 and 61 yards during the preseason and emerged from a tight competition with Blake Grupe to be the Colts' kicker in 2026.

colts.com · Aug 30, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tyler Loop

Start· medium

Starting placekicker who handles kickoffs. Accurate inside 50 but limited range, hitting just 1-of-4 from 50-plus as a rookie with a long of 52.

K12 with a 26.5 implied total, 1.9 red-zone stalls per game and 88% accuracy indoors — volume and environment both check out.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
  • BAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Baltimore's 26.5 implied team total plus 1.9 red-zone stalls per game is the ideal kicker recipe: plenty of drives, plenty that end in a field-goal try. Projection of 2.0 attempts and 2.6 extra points backs it.
  • Loop is the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation and 88% accuracy (30/34), so there's no leg-strength or usage risk to work around beyond a modest 52-yard long.
  • Retractable roof with a calm forecast either way removes the wind and precipitation variance that usually separates kickers — this is a clean scoring environment.
  • Only real caveat: K12 on 8.5 projected points is a mid-tier start, so a top-8 kicker in a higher-total game on your bench would be the tiebreaker.

Latest on Loop

News & Notes: Tyler Loop Has 'Embraced' Competition From Jake Moody

The Ravens have a completion rate target for Lamar Jackson. Declan Doyle has a timeline for choosing the starting center. Where rookie Zion Young has made strides.

baltimoreravens.com · Sep 2, 2026
Minter backs Loop as Ravens add kicker competition in Moody

Baltimore signed Jake Moody to the practice squad three days after Tyler Loop missed two kicks in the preseason finale.

ESPN · Aug 31, 2026
Jesse Minter still has confidence in K Tyler Loop

Jamison Hensley breaks down the kicking situation for the Ravens.

VideoESPN · Aug 31, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricSpencer ShraderTyler Loop
Projected points
Consensus rankK21K11
Projected FG attempts2.12.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.4(2025)1.9(2025)
Kicking conditionsRetractable roof, calm forecast either wayRetractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread23.0+3.526.5-3.5
Field-goal %92.9%(2025)88.2%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up—

Signal breakdown

  • 8.2 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsTyler Loop +
  • Rank 21 vs 11Tyler Loop +
  • 2.1 vs 2.0 projected attemptsSpencer Shrader +
  • 1.4 vs 1.9 red-zone stalls per gameTyler Loop +
  • 6 mph, 84°F, overcast vs 6 mph, 84°F, overcasteven
  • Implied 23.0 vs 26.5 team pointsTyler Loop +
  • No injury designationseven

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