Pat Freiermuth or Quentin Johnston: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Freiermuth — the consensus rank and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.

Pat Freiermuth is the higher consensus play (TE24 to WR47) and draws the softer matchup (CLE ranks 25 of 32 against TEs; SEA ranks 8). Johnston's edge is snap share, 82% to 69%. The gap is comfortable.

Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth

TE24PITvs CLE

Projected Points

Sit
Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston

WR47LACvs SEA

Projected Points

Toss-Up

Pat Freiermuth’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
+128 / -164
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 27.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+400
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Quentin Johnston’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+290
Anytime Touchdown Props →
PIT@
CLEThu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
LAC@
SEASun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Pat Freiermuth

Sit

TE1 in pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover with red-zone size and dependable hands.

Sit — bench-tier TE at consensus TE24: 13% target share, 8.1 PPR projected vs CLE.

  • CLE ranks 25 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 69% snap share.

Why Quentin Johnston

Toss-Up

Starting outside WR2. Big-bodied contested-catch target with red-zone scoring production.

Toss-up — WR47 consensus, projects WR59 this week: SEA is the 8th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 20% target share.

  • SEA ranks 8 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 21.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
  • Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 82% snap share.

Head-to-head stats

MetricPat FreiermuthQuentin Johnston
Projected points
Consensus rankTE24WR47
Opponent vs positionCLE · 25 of 323-game sampleSEA · 8 of 323-game sample
Receptions25 of 329 of 32
Receiving Yards21 of 321 of 32
Receiving TDs26 of 328 of 32
Targets27 of 3215 of 32
Anytime TD25 of 327 of 32
Target share13%20%
Reception share16%12%
Implied total · spread21.5-2.521.3+3.0
Depth chartTE2WR2
Snap share69%82%
Start/Sit record—0–2+1 toss-up

Recent form

Pat Freiermuth — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CIN
Week 2vs NE
Week 1vs ATL

Quentin Johnston — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs BUF
Week 2vs LV
Week 1vs ARI

Signal breakdown

  • 8.1 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsQuentin Johnston +
  • Rank 24 vs 47Pat Freiermuth +
  • Opponent DvP rank 25 vs 8 (32 = softest)Pat Freiermuth +
  • Implied 21.5 vs 21.3 team pointsPat Freiermuth +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 69% vs 82% snap shareQuentin Johnston +

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