MarShawn Lloyd or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
Historical comparison from 2026 Week 4 — one of these players isn’t on the current board.
Start Lloyd — the availability and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.
MarShawn Lloyd is the healthier side of this call (Ferguson carries a Doubtful tag) and draws the softer matchup (TB ranks 13 of 32 against RBs; PHI ranks 3). Ferguson's edge is the consensus rank, TE22 to RB33. The gap is narrow.
MarShawn Lloyd
5.46.06.5 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
4.76.17.5 Projected Points
Why MarShawn Lloyd
SitRB1-listed change-of-pace back. Explosive burst and receiving upside; minimal NFL sample due to injuries.
Sit — RB33 consensus, projects RB48 this week: 24.5 implied team total, 5% target share.
- TB ranks 13 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 31% snap share.
Latest on Lloyd
MarShawn Lloyd played fewer snaps than Kaleb Johnson in Week 3, continuing a trend of reduced role since Week 1.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 26, 2026Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Terrance Ferguson
Sit· highSecond-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.
Listed doubtful with a medial ankle sprain and reported expected to miss Week 4 at PHI; even healthy, TE22 in a 3-of-32 matchup.
- Listed Doubtful on the latest report — rarely plays through that tag.
- PHI ranks 3 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 45% snap share.
The call
- Availability is the driver: status is D (doubtful), and Yahoo Sports (2026-09-29) reports he sustained a medial ankle sprain in Week 3 and is expected to miss the Eagles game. A therams.com headline says McVay called him likely out, though that headline is unverified.
- Even if he suits up, the profile is thin: 45% snap share and 11% target share over 3 games put him in a part-time role behind a TE22 consensus rank and 7.5 projected PPR points.
- The matchup offers no rescue. PHI grades 3 of 32 against tight ends, though that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence.
- The 24.5 implied team total and -1.5 spread are neutral and don't offset the injury risk. Grab a healthy streamer instead of risking a zero from a doubtful player.
Latest on Ferguson
Ferguson sustained a medial ankle sprain in Week 3 and is expected to miss the Week 4 game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 29, 2026Rams head coach Sean McVay discusses the latest injury updates on tight ends Terrance Ferguson (ankle) and Colby Parkinson (shoulder), as well as cornerback Jaylen Watson (shoulder) coming out of Sunday Night Football against the Broncos, as well as wide receiver Puka Nacua's (hip) status
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Rams-Broncos on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | MarShawn Lloyd | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.46.06.5 | 4.76.17.5 |
| Consensus rank | RB33 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | TB · 13 of 323-game sample | PHI · 3 of 323-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 2 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 8 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 6 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 32 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 26 of 32 | 5 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 6 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 3 of 32 |
| Target share | 5% | 11% |
| Reception share | 6% | 10% |
| Implied total · spread | 24.5-1.5 | 24.5-1.5 |
| Depth chart | RB2 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 31% | 45% |
| Injury designation | — | Doubtful |
| Start/Sit record | 1–1+1 toss-up | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
MarShawn Lloyd — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs ATL | 1.82.83.8 |
| Week 2 | vs NYJ | 6.67.68.6 |
| Week 1 | vs MIN | 3.73.73.7 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs DEN | 0.91.41.9 |
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 6.5 vs 7.5 projected PPR pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- Rank 33 vs 22Terrance Ferguson +
- Opponent DvP rank 13 vs 3 (32 = softest)MarShawn Lloyd +
- Implied 24.5 vs 24.5 team pointseven
- no designation vs DoubtfulMarShawn Lloyd +
- 31% vs 45% snap shareTerrance Ferguson +
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