Aaron Jones Sr. or MarShawn Lloyd: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Lloyd — the projection and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
MarShawn Lloyd projects 13.5 to Jones's 10.3 and plays in the better game script (23.0 implied team points to 21.5). No signal favors Jones this week. The gap is comfortable.
Aaron Jones Sr.
7.58.910.3 Projected Points
MarShawn Lloyd
11.612.613.5 Projected Points
Why Aaron Jones Sr.
Toss-Up· mediumVeteran lead back with pass-catching chops. Three-down workload when healthy, splitting carries in committee.
Passing-game role (12% target share) props up the PPR floor, but an RB34 tag and 21.5 implied team total cap the upside — a flex call, not a lock.
- Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share in 2025.
The call
- The usage is real but not dominant: 55% snap share over 12 games means he's sharing the backfield, and the 10.3-point projection with an RB34 consensus rank puts him squarely on the flex bubble in 12-team PPR.
- The 12% target share is the saving grace — receiving work travels regardless of game script and gives him a catch-driven floor even if the run game stalls.
- A 21.5 implied team total and a 1.5-point spread point to a tight, low-scoring game, which trims touchdown equity and keeps the ceiling modest.
- No injury designation, so volume isn't in question — this comes down to whether you need floor (start him) or ceiling (look elsewhere).
Why MarShawn Lloyd
StartStart — RB33 consensus, projects RB20 this week: 13.5 PPR projected vs MIN.
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart.
Latest on Lloyd
When to draft MarShawn Lloyd, Josh Jacobs and other Green Bay Packers running backs.
ESPN · Aug 30, 2026
Seth Walder, Ben Solak and Mackenzie Kraemer reveal the players they're drafting over and over in Best Ball.
ESPN · Aug 30, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Aaron Jones Sr. | MarShawn Lloyd |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.58.910.3 | 11.612.613.5 |
| Consensus rank | RB34 | RB33 |
| Opponent vs position | GBno ranking yet | MINno ranking yet |
| Target share | 12%(2025) | — |
| Reception share | 13%(2025) | — |
| Implied total · spread | 21.5+1.5 | 23.0-1.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | RB2 |
| Snap share | 55%(2025) | — |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Signal breakdown
- 10.3 vs 13.5 projected PPR pointsMarShawn Lloyd +
- Rank 34 vs 33MarShawn Lloyd +
- Matchup (DvP composite)even
- Implied 21.5 vs 23.0 team pointsMarShawn Lloyd +
- No injury designationseven
- Snap shareeven
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