Kyle Pitts Sr. or Xavier Worthy: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Kyle Pitts Sr. and Xavier Worthy grade out even this week. Pitts's best edge is the consensus rank (TE7 to WR49), Worthy's best edge is the projection (9.8 to 7.4) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
4.45.97.4 Projected Points
Xavier Worthy
6.78.29.8 Projected Points
Kyle Pitts Sr.’s market
Xavier Worthy’s market
Why Kyle Pitts Sr.
Toss-Up· lowTE1 and vertical seam threat. Rare size-speed mismatch profile with high-volume target share in the passing game.
TE7 rank and a soft-leaning NO matchup (25 of 32) clash with a thin 53% snap / 8% target share role.
- NO ranks 27 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 2.5-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share.
The call
- The case for starting him is his consensus TE7 rank and a 7.4-point projection, which sits near low-end TE1 territory at a thin position. NO grades 25 of 32 against tight ends, on the softer side.
- The case against is usage. A 53% snap share and 8% target share over 3 games is a part-time role, and that supports the house sit-lean.
- The matchup signal is shaky. It rests on a 3-game sample with only 0.25 confidence, so don't lean on it heavily.
- A 21.5 implied team total is middling and gives no strong scoring bump. Start him over a streamer with a weaker role, but bench him for any TE seeing a clearly bigger target share.
Latest on Pitts
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Falcons-Packers on "Thursday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Xavier Worthy
StartWR2 and vertical speed threat. Elite track speed with jet-motion and manufactured-touch usage.
Start — WR49 consensus, projects WR43 this week: 24.5 implied team total, 19% target share.
- LV ranks 10 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 4-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 5.5-point favorites.
- Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 80% snap share.
Latest on Worthy
Worthy has had 15 targets and 10 receptions for 36 yards this season.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs have rediscovered the deep passESPN · Oct 2, 2026The Chiefs had been monitoring and receiving updates on Hill's rehab and training sessions even before the injuries to Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Kyle Pitts Sr. | Xavier Worthy |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.45.97.4 | 6.78.29.8 |
| Consensus rank | TE7 | WR49 |
| Opponent vs position | NO · 27 of 323-game sample | LV · 10 of 324-game sample |
| Receptions | 30 of 32 | 3 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 29 of 32 | 18 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 22 of 32 | 5 of 32 |
| Targets | 30 of 32 | 19 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 22 of 32 | 5 of 32 |
| Target share | 8% | 19% |
| Reception share | 4% | 17% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.5+2.5 | 24.5-5.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR2 |
| Snap share | 53% | 80% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–1+2 toss-ups | 1–1+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Kyle Pitts Sr. — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs GB | 0.51.01.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CAR | 1.52.02.5 |
| Week 1 | vs PIT | 0.00.00.0 |
Xavier Worthy — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs MIA | 2.03.04.0 |
| Week 2 | vs IND | 8.511.013.5 |
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 1.83.34.8 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.4 vs 9.8 projected PPR pointsXavier Worthy +
- Rank 7 vs 49Kyle Pitts Sr. +
- Opponent DvP rank 27 vs 10 (32 = softest)Kyle Pitts Sr. +
- Implied 21.5 vs 24.5 team pointsXavier Worthy +
- No injury designationseven
- 53% vs 80% snap shareXavier Worthy +
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