Jalen Hurts or Tyson Bagent: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Hurts — the projection and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.
Jalen Hurts projects 17.6 to Bagent's 15.5 and plays a 98% snap share to Bagent's 14%. Bagent's edge is the game script, 27.0 implied points to 23.0. The gap is narrow.
Jalen Hurts
17.617.617.6 Projected Points
Tyson Bagent
15.515.515.5 Projected Points
Jalen Hurts’s market
Tyson Bagent’s market
Why Jalen Hurts
StartStarting QB and franchise cornerstone. Dual-threat with elite short-yardage rushing and Super Bowl pedigree.
Start — every-week QB start at consensus QB6: 98% snap share, 17.6 PPR projected vs LAR.
- LAR ranks 10 of 32 against QBs (one of the tougher matchups, 4-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 98% snap share.
Latest on Hurts
New scheme, injuries to key personnel, adversity – the offense has overcome it all in this 2-0 start with room for growth.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tyson Bagent
Toss-Up· lowQB2 and primary backup. Undrafted developmental arm with spot-start experience in relief duty.
Expected to start vs NYJ with a strong 27.0 implied total, but 15.5 projection is QB2-range and his concussion status kept him out of Thursday practice.
- NYJ ranks 15 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 14% snap share.
The call
- Role: ESPN (10/3) reports Bagent is expected to start against the Jets, and he carries no injury designation. However, he did not practice Thursday with his concussion status unclear (SI, 10/1), and an ESPN headline the day before said the coach was not ready to name a starter.
- Game script: an implied team total of 27.0 as an 8.5-point favorite points to a productive offense. A big lead could also lean run-heavy late, which caps his passing volume.
- Matchup: NYJ ranks 15 of 32 vs QBs, which is neutral, and it rests on a 3-game sample with only 0.25 confidence, so it adds little signal.
- What tips it: at 15.5 projected points he is a fringe option in 12-team leagues. Start him only as a streamer if your QB1 is out and the start is confirmed; otherwise a typical rostered starter is the safer play.
Latest on Bagent
Tyson Bagent will start at quarterback for the Bears in Sunday's game against the Packers.
Tyson Bagent cherishes first start since 2023chicagobears.com, ESPN · Oct 5, 2026Tyson Bagent did not practice Thursday with concussion status remaining unclear, though ESPN reported he is "doing well."
Sports Illustrated · Oct 1, 2026Tyson Bagent cleared concussion protocol and was active but stayed on the sideline against the Eagles.
Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent? Bears face a QB decisionESPN · Sep 30, 2026Bears coach Ben Johnson will not say whether Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent will start Sunday against the Jets.
Bears coach Ben Johnson said he knows the "direction" the team will go at quarterback in Week 4 but won't publicly declare a starter.
Courtney Cronin reports on the Bears QB room getting an upgrade as Tyson Bagent is expected to return this week.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Jalen Hurts | Tyson Bagent |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 17.617.617.6 | 15.515.515.5 |
| Consensus rank | QB6 | — |
| Opponent vs position | LAR · 10 of 324-game sample | NYJ · 15 of 323-game sample |
| Passing Yards | 1 of 32 | 4 of 32 |
| Passing TDs | 21 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Passing Completions | 3 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Passing Attempts | 13 of 32 | 13 of 32 |
| Interceptions | 12 of 32 | 29 of 32 |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0+1.5 | 27.0-8.5 |
| Depth chart | QB1 | QB2 |
| Snap share | 98% | 14% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Jalen Hurts — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CHI | 12.612.612.6 |
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 16.216.216.2 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | 24.724.724.7 |
Tyson Bagent — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs PHI | 0.00.00.0 |
| Week 2 | vs MIN | 2.22.22.2 |
| Week 1 | vs CAR | DNP |
Signal breakdown
- 17.6 vs 15.5 projected PPR pointsJalen Hurts +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 10 vs 15 (32 = softest)Tyson Bagent +
- Implied 23.0 vs 27.0 team pointsTyson Bagent +
- No injury designationseven
- 98% vs 14% snap shareJalen Hurts +
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