Jake Elliott or Nick Folk: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Elliott owns the better script, but Folk's field-goal profile keeps this level

Elliott benefits from Philadelphia's stronger scoring environment and favorite script, which supports extra-point chances even with a modest field-goal outlook. Folk counters with more red-zone stall potential and exceptional accuracy, giving Atlanta a viable path if drives bog down before touchdowns. Elliott is the better standalone start, but the head-to-head edge is narrow: his lower stall rate and weaker accuracy offset much of the team-total advantage. The main risk is that Philadelphia converts its chances into touchdowns while Atlanta settles for kicks.

What flips it: A late Philadelphia red-zone downgrade or Atlanta shift toward field-goal attempts.

AI editor

Jake Elliott

Jake Elliott

K20PHIvs WSH

Projected Points

Start· medium
Nick Folk

Nick Folk

K17ATLvs PIT

Projected Points

Sit
WSH@
PHISun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
ATL@
PITSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Jake Elliott

Start· medium

Veteran starting K with big-leg range. Proven in high-leverage postseason kicks.

26.0 implied team total and a 5.5-point favorite role give Elliott a 3.0-XP floor plus 1.9 FG tries — enough volume despite the K20 tag.

  • Favorite script gives Elliott a touchdown-driven scoring path, not just reliance on long field goals.
  • His big-leg range matters if Philadelphia's drives stall outside easy scoring distance.

The call

  • Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is the key input: 3.0 projected extra points give Elliott a floor most K20-ranked kickers don't have, and 1.9 attempts add the upside.
  • Only 0.8 red-zone stalls per game means this offense finishes drives rather than settling for field goals — that caps attempt volume but converts into the XP floor instead.
  • Risk factors are real: 74% accuracy (20/27) is unimpressive and the K20 consensus rank says the market sees him as a fringe starter, so a shootout that stalls could leave 5-6 points.
  • He's locked in as PK1 with no injury designation, and the open roof has no forecast yet — recheck weather before locking, since wind is the one thing that would flip this to a sit.

Why Nick Folk

Sit

Veteran starting kicker. Reliable accuracy and long-track-record consistency in the field-goal role.

Sit — K17 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.

  • Folk's accuracy makes his field-goal opportunities more bankable when Atlanta fails to finish drives.
  • A lower-scoring offense can still help a kicker when red-zone possessions become field-goal attempts.

Head-to-head stats

MetricJake ElliottNick Folk
Projected points
Consensus rankK20K17
Projected FG attempts1.92.0
Red-zone stalls / game0.8(2025)1.2(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffCalm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread26.0-5.519.8+3.0
Field-goal %74.1%(2025)96.6%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 8.5 vs 7.8 projected PPR pointsJake Elliott +
  • Rank 20 vs 17Nick Folk +
  • 1.9 vs 2.0 projected attemptsNick Folk +
  • 0.8 vs 1.2 red-zone stalls per gameNick Folk +
  • 9 mph, 85°F, clear vs 7 mph, 75°F, overcasteven
  • Implied 26.0 vs 19.8 team pointsJake Elliott +
  • No injury designationseven

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