Isaiah Likely or Omarion Hampton: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Likely — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Isaiah Likely plays in the better game script (26.3 implied team points to 21.3) and projects 11.7 to Hampton's 10.7. Hampton's edge is the consensus rank, RB9 to TE14. The gap is narrow.

In standard and half-PPR scoring this is a coin flip.

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs ARI

Projected Points

Start· medium
Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton

RB9LACvs SEA

Projected Points

Sit

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-168 / +126
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 41.5
-111 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+285
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Omarion Hampton’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 45.5
-113 / -113
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
+117 / -149
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 5.5
-116 / -108
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+125
Anytime Touchdown Props →
ARI@
NYGSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LAC@
SEASun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

28% target share over 3 games in an offense implied for 26.3 points makes Likely a viable TE1 fringe start at TE14 despite a neutral matchup.

  • ARI ranks 19 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 7.0-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 67% snap share.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 28% target share is elite for a tight end and gives him a stable PPR floor, even at a 67% snap share.
  • Game environment helps. A 26.3 implied team total and a -7.0 spread point to plenty of scoring chances, including red-zone looks.
  • The matchup is neutral at 19 of 32, and it rests on a thin 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
  • The 11.7 projection and TE14 rank put him on the TE1/TE2 border. With no injury designation, he's a start over typical replacement-level tight ends in 12-team leagues.

Why Omarion Hampton

Sit

RB1 and feature back. Powerful, high-volume runner with three-down receiving usage; 2025 season shortened by injury.

Sit — RB9 consensus, projects RB28 this week: SEA is the 10th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 4% target share.

  • SEA ranks 10 of 32 against RBs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 21.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 54% snap share.

Latest on Hampton

Seahawks send the Chargers to 0-4
VideoESPN · Oct 4, 2026
'Growing pains': What's going on with the Chargers' offense?

Is the Chargers' offense too complicated for the team? What's going wrong with McDaniels' scheme in L.A.

ESPN · Sep 26, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyOmarion Hampton
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14RB9
Opponent vs positionARI · 19 of 323-game sampleSEA · 10 of 323-game sample
Receptions17 of 3217 of 32
Receiving Yards24 of 3214 of 32
Receiving TDs17 of 32—
Targets9 of 32—
Anytime TD26 of 326 of 32
Rushing Yards—5 of 32
Rushing TDs—1 of 32
Rushing Attempts—17 of 32
Target share28%4%
Reception share29%6%
Implied total · spread26.3-7.021.3+3.0
Depth chartTE1RB1
Snap share67%54%
Start/Sit record1–20–1

Recent form

Isaiah Likely — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs TEN
Week 2vs LAR
Week 1vs DAL

Omarion Hampton — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs BUF
Week 2vs LV
Week 1vs ARI

Signal breakdown

  • 11.7 vs 10.7 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Rank 14 vs 9Omarion Hampton +
  • Opponent DvP rank 19 vs 10 (32 = softest)Isaiah Likely +
  • Implied 26.3 vs 21.3 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 67% vs 54% snap shareIsaiah Likely +

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