Start Colts D/ST over Commanders D/ST — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Home date with turnover-prone Ravens gives Indy's D/ST a thin edge over Washington

Both units are firmly in bench territory this week, and neither projection swing is big enough to change that verdict. The real separator is Baltimore's giveaway rate, which is high enough to give the Colts a better shot at a stray takeaway than Washington gets against a Philadelphia offense that protects the ball far better. Home field tips the scale further toward Indy, even though the raw point projections actually favor the Commanders by half a point. Treat this as a marginal lean between two units you shouldn't be starting regardless.

What flips it: A late scratch along Baltimore's offensive line that spikes their sack rate would widen Indy's edge further.

AI editor

Colts D/ST

D/STINDvs BAL

3.03.03.0 Projected Points

Sit

Commanders D/ST

D/STWSHvs PHI

3.53.53.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Colts D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 30): Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points, and 3.0 pts projected vs BAL.

Baltimore's giveaway tendencies give Indy's D/ST its best realistic path to a bonus takeaway score.
Hosting the game instead of traveling nudges the matchup math in Indy's favor even with the lower raw projection.

Why Commanders D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 27): Vegas has PHI at 26 points, and 3.5 pts projected vs PHI.

Washington's slightly higher point projection doesn't offset the tougher road environment in Philadelphia.
Philadelphia's tighter ball security caps the turnover-driven upside that would make the Commanders worth starting.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Colts D/ST	Commanders D/ST
Projected points	3.03.03.0	3.53.53.5
Projection rank	Proj.DST30	Proj.DST27
Started in	1% of leagues	1% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	2.6(2025)	2.3(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	1.4(2025)	0.9(2025)
Opponent implied total	26.5	26.0
Home / away	Home	Away