Gunnar Helm or MarShawn Lloyd: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Helm’s steadier role wins this sit-versus-sit call

Helm’s secure, underneath TE role is the separator; the 0.6-point projection edge is too small to carry the call on its own. Lloyd has the better scoring environment, but his reduced role and limited receiving work blunt that advantage. Yahoo Sports 2026-09-26 reports he played fewer snaps than Kaleb Johnson in Week 3, continuing a trend of reduced work since Week 1. Helm’s own low team total caps his upside, so this makes him the less fragile sit—not a start.

What flips it: A verified workload increase for Lloyd.

Sources: Yahoo Sports · Sep 26, 2026

AI editor

In standard scoring this is a coin flip.

Gunnar Helm

Gunnar Helm

TE24TENvs BAL

Projected Points

Sit
MarShawn Lloyd

MarShawn Lloyd

RB33GBvs TB

Projected Points

Sit

Gunnar Helm’s market

REC
O/U 2.5
-123 / -104
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 18.5
-108 / -117
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+550
Anytime Touchdown Props →

MarShawn Lloyd’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 22.5
-117 / -107
ATD
Anytime TD
+270
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
GB@
TBSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Gunnar Helm

Sit

Starting TE and volume underneath target. Reliable seam and checkdown option with developing in-line blocking.

Sit — bench-tier TE at consensus TE24: 14% target share, 7.1 PPR projected vs BAL.

  • His seam-and-checkdown role offers a steadier path to catches than Lloyd’s change-of-pace workload.
  • Helm is the better choice when you need role security, even without much touchdown upside.

Why MarShawn Lloyd

Sit

RB1-listed change-of-pace back. Explosive burst and receiving upside; minimal NFL sample due to injuries.

Sit — RB33 consensus, projects RB48 this week: 5% target share, 6.5 PPR projected vs TB.

  • Lloyd’s burst gives him a way to produce on limited touches if he breaks a play.
  • Green Bay’s stronger scoring outlook gives Lloyd more upside if his workload grows.

Latest on Lloyd

Role

MarShawn Lloyd played fewer snaps than Kaleb Johnson in Week 3, continuing a trend of reduced role since Week 1.

Yahoo Sports · Sep 26, 2026
MarShawn Lloyd's fantasy outlook
VideoESPN · Sep 23, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricGunnar HelmMarShawn Lloyd
Projected points
Consensus rankTE24RB33
Opponent vs positionBAL · 14 of 323-game sampleTB · 13 of 323-game sample
Receptions11 of 3232 of 32
Receiving Yards14 of 3226 of 32
Receiving TDs18 of 32—
Targets9 of 32—
Anytime TD18 of 326 of 32
Rushing Yards—2 of 32
Rushing TDs—8 of 32
Rushing Attempts—6 of 32
Target share14%5%
Reception share15%6%
Implied total · spread19.5+8.524.5-1.5
Depth chartTE1RB2
Snap share82%31%
Start/Sit record—1–1+1 toss-up

Recent form

Gunnar Helm — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs NYG
Week 2vs PHI
Week 1vs NYJ

MarShawn Lloyd — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs ATL
Week 2vs NYJ
Week 1vs MIN

Signal breakdown

  • 7.1 vs 6.5 projected PPR pointsGunnar Helm +
  • Rank 24 vs 33Gunnar Helm +
  • Opponent DvP rank 14 vs 13 (32 = softest)Gunnar Helm +
  • Implied 19.5 vs 24.5 team pointsMarShawn Lloyd +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 82% vs 31% snap shareGunnar Helm +

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