Dominic Zvada or Jake Elliott: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Dominic Zvada and Jake Elliott grade out even this week. Zvada's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.9 to 0.8 stalls per game), Elliott's best edge is the game script (26.0 implied points to 23.5) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Dominic Zvada

Dominic Zvada

KNYGvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium
Jake Elliott

Jake Elliott

K20PHIvs WSH

Projected Points

Start· low
DAL@
NYGSun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETView the game →
WSH@
PHISun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Dominic Zvada

Start· medium

Starting PK with big leg and strong college accuracy. Rookie with no prior NFL sample.

PK1 with a calm, open-roof forecast, 23.5 implied total and 1.9 red-zone stalls per game — 8.1 projected points is a fine K1 floor.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • NYG's offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has NYG at 23.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.

The call

  • Locked in as PK1 with no injury designation, so the full 2.1 attempts and 2.2 extra points are his alone.
  • The offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times per game, which converts drives into field-goal tries — exactly the profile that feeds kicker volume.
  • A 23.5 implied total in a 1.5-point game means plenty of scoring chances without the blowout risk that sidelines a kicker.
  • Calm forecast at an open roof removes the weather variable that separates kickers most weeks.

Why Jake Elliott

Start· low

Veteran starting K with big-leg range. Proven in high-leverage postseason kicks.

26.0 implied total and calm, open-roof kickoff make Elliott a playable K1, but K20 consensus and 74% accuracy keep this a low-conviction start.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • PHI's offense stalls in the red zone 0.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has PHI at 26 points as 5.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total as a 5.5-point favorite is the driving factor — 3.0 projected extra points plus 1.9 FG attempts is a full workload for the PK1 with no injury designation.
  • Calm forecast under an open roof removes the biggest kicker variable; Elliott has already connected from 50-plus in 3 games with a long of 58, so the deep-range upside is live.
  • The caution flags are real: 74% accuracy (20/27) and only 0.8 red-zone stalls per game cap FG volume, which is why the consensus has him just K20 at 8.5 points.
  • If a kicker attached to a similar implied total with better accuracy is sitting on waivers, take him; otherwise Elliott's scoring environment is good enough to roll out.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDominic ZvadaJake Elliott
Projected points
Consensus rank—K20
Projected FG attempts2.11.9
Red-zone stalls / game1.9(2025)0.8(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffCalm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread23.5+1.526.0-5.5
Field-goal %—74.1%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 8.1 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsJake Elliott +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • 2.1 vs 1.9 projected attemptsDominic Zvada +
  • 1.9 vs 0.8 red-zone stalls per gameDominic Zvada +
  • 5 mph, 73°F, clear vs 4 mph, 79°F, overcasteven
  • Implied 23.5 vs 26.0 team pointsJake Elliott +
  • No injury designationseven

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