DeVonta Smith or Michael Wilson: Who Should You Start?
Historical comparison from 2026 Week 4 — one of these players isn’t on the current board.
Start Smith — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
DeVonta Smith is the higher consensus play (WR16 to WR37) and projects 15.6 to Wilson's 13.3. Wilson's edge is availability, a clean report to Smith's Questionable. The gap is comfortable.
DeVonta Smith
9.512.515.6 Projected Points
Michael Wilson
8.310.813.3 Projected Points
Why DeVonta Smith
StartWR1-caliber outside receiver. Elite route technician with reliable hands and high target volume.
Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: 33% target share, 15.6 PPR projected vs LAR.
- Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
- LAR ranks 12 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 94% snap share.
Latest on Smith
Tim McManus breaks down the Eagles' wide receiver plans without DeVonta Smith.
The Eagles' go-to guy in key moments has always seen himself as WR1 -- now everyone else is just catching up.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Michael Wilson
Start· mediumWR2 and big-bodied outside target. Physical at the catch point with 1,000-yard breakout production and full-season availability.
A 27% target share on a 91% snap rate makes Wilson a volume-backed WR3/flex at WR37, even with a modest 19.3 implied team total.
- NYG ranks 23 of 32 against WRs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 19.3 team points as 7.0-point underdogs.
- Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 91% snap share.
The call
- Role is locked in. Wilson has played 91% of snaps with a 27% target share over 3 games, which is alpha-level volume for a player ranked WR37.
- The matchup leans slightly soft: NYG ranks 23 of 32 against the position. That rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so the volume carries this call more than the matchup does.
- The 7.0 spread likely makes his team an underdog, which points toward a pass-heavy game script that boosts his target floor. That is the main upside lever.
- The risk is a 19.3 implied team total, which caps touchdown equity. His 13.4-point projection still clears typical replacement-level flex options in 12-team PPR.
Latest on Wilson
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | DeVonta Smith | Michael Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.512.515.6 | 8.310.813.3 |
| Consensus rank | WR16 | WR37 |
| Opponent vs position | LAR · 12 of 323-game sample | NYG · 23 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 1 of 32 | 22 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 6 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 24 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Targets | 3 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 24 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Target share | 33% | 27% |
| Reception share | 34% | 22% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0+1.5 | 19.3+7.0 |
| Depth chart | WR1 | WR1 |
| Snap share | 94% | 91% |
| Injury designation | Questionable | — |
Recent form
DeVonta Smith — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CHI | 6.59.512.5 |
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 17.722.727.7 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | 5.36.88.3 |
Michael Wilson — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs SF | 14.920.425.9 |
| Week 2 | vs SEA | 1.82.83.8 |
| Week 1 | vs LAC | 5.68.110.6 |
Signal breakdown
- 15.6 vs 13.3 projected PPR pointsDeVonta Smith +
- Rank 16 vs 37DeVonta Smith +
- Opponent DvP rank 12 vs 23 (32 = softest)Michael Wilson +
- Implied 23.0 vs 19.3 team pointsDeVonta Smith +
- Questionable vs no designationMichael Wilson +
- 94% vs 91% snap shareDeVonta Smith +
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