Deebo Samuel Sr. or T.J. Hockenson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Hockenson — the consensus rank and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.

T.J. Hockenson is the higher consensus play (TE18 to WR53) and draws the softer matchup (MIA ranks 20 of 32 against TEs; DEN ranks 9). Samuel's edge is the projection, 10.8 to 9.0. The gap is comfortable.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR53SFvs DEN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson

TE18MINvs MIA

Projected Points

Start

Deebo Samuel Sr.’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
+120 / -154
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 33.5
-111 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+185
Anytime Touchdown Props →

T.J. Hockenson’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+106 / -136
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 37.5
-120 / -111
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+170
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DEN@
SFSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
MIA@
MINSun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ETView the game →

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Toss-Up· low

Starting WR and hybrid weapon. Yards-after-catch bully used on jet sweeps and manufactured touches.

WR53 rank and a stingy DEN matchup (9 of 32) undercut the start lean; a 24.5 implied total keeps him flex-viable in deeper builds.

  • DEN ranks 9 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 59% snap share.

The call

  • The model leans start, but a WR53 consensus rank and 10.8 projected PPR points put him at the edge of the typical 12-team starting pool, closer to replacement level than a locked-in WR3.
  • Matchup is a mild negative: DEN ranks 9 of 32 against WRs, on the tougher side. It's only a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so don't overweight it.
  • His role is part-time for a WR-2: 59% snap share and 14% target share cap his floor. He needs efficiency or a splash play to beat the projection.
  • Game script helps. A 24.5 implied team total as 2.5-point favorites signals a functional offense, and he carries no injury designation. Start him over a lower-volume dart throw; sit him if you have a WR ranked in the low 40s or better.

Latest on Samuel

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why T.J. Hockenson

Start

TE1 and primary middle-of-field target. Route-savvy seam threat with high-volume usage when healthy.

Start — TE18 consensus, projects TE14 this week: 25.5 implied team total, 26% target share.

  • MIA ranks 20 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 4-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 25.5 team points as 7.5-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 73% snap share.

Latest on Hockenson

Facts vs. Feelings: Seven start-sit decisions you might be dreading and the facts to guide you through them

Loza shares facts to help you decide whether to start players you might feel are borderline in Week 3.

ESPN · Sep 23, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDeebo Samuel Sr.T.J. Hockenson
Projected points
Consensus rankWR53TE18
Opponent vs positionDEN · 9 of 323-game sampleMIA · 20 of 324-game sample
Receptions1 of 3228 of 32
Receiving Yards15 of 3229 of 32
Receiving TDs8 of 3213 of 32
Targets12 of 3219 of 32
Anytime TD7 of 3212 of 32
Target share14%26%
Reception share15%32%
Implied total · spread24.5-2.525.5-7.5
Depth chartWR2TE1
Snap share59%73%
Start/Sit record1–0+3 toss-ups1–0

Recent form

Deebo Samuel Sr. — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs ARI
Week 2vs MIA
Week 1vs LAR

T.J. Hockenson — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs TB
Week 2vs CHI
Week 1vs GB

Signal breakdown

  • 10.8 vs 9.0 projected PPR pointsDeebo Samuel Sr. +
  • Rank 53 vs 18T.J. Hockenson +
  • Opponent DvP rank 9 vs 20 (32 = softest)T.J. Hockenson +
  • Implied 24.5 vs 25.5 team pointsT.J. Hockenson +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 59% vs 73% snap shareT.J. Hockenson +

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