David Montgomery or Keenan Allen: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Montgomery — Allen is ruled out.

Keenan Allen is ruled out, which settles it: David Montgomery is the only startable side of this call. Montgomery projects 13.5 PPR points.

David Montgomery

David Montgomery

RB22HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium
Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen

WR59INDvs WSH

Projected Points

OUT — verdict voidSit· high

David Montgomery’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 44.5
-112 / -112
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
-124 / -103
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 10.5
-117 / -107
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
-130
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →

Why David Montgomery

Start· medium

RB1 and lead back. Powerful downhill runner with contact balance and reliable short-yardage/goal-line role.

RB22 at 13.5 projected with a 25.0 implied total as 2.5-pt favorites; a solid RB2/flex despite a light 6% target share.

  • DAL ranks 21 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 25.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share.

The call

  • Volume and script support him: a 25.0 implied team total and a -2.5 spread point to a positive game script and goal-line chances for a back with a 55% snap share.
  • The matchup is neutral, not a drag. DAL ranks 21 of 32 in DvP composite, but that rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't move the call much.
  • The risk is the floor. A 6% target share caps his PPR value through the air, which fits the unverified ESPN headline calling him 'touchdown or bust.'
  • With no injury designation and an RB22 consensus rank, he clears a typical replacement-level flex option. That confirms the model's start-lean, with medium confidence because of the TD dependence.

Latest on Montgomery

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Keenan Allen

Sit· high

Veteran possession WR in a crowded receiver room. Elite route craft and reliable hands on third downs.

Ruled out this week: Keenan Allen's 'out' status means zero points, overriding a soft WSH matchup (30 of 32) and a 21% target share.

  • Currently ruled out — not a viable start until his status changes.
  • WSH ranks 30 of 32 against WRs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
  • Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 64% snap share.

The call

  • Availability is the whole story: he is listed out, so he cannot score and has to come out of any lineup.
  • The matchup would have helped. WSH ranks 30 of 32 against WRs, though that comes from a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, and his team's implied total is a healthy 24.5.
  • When active, his role was usable but not elite: WR-2 with a 64% snap share and a 21% target share, which lines up with a WR59 consensus rank and an 11.3-point projection.
  • Plug in any active replacement-level receiver. A zero from an inactive player is the worst outcome in a lineup slot.

Latest on Allen

Status

Keenan Allen has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders with a groin injury.

Colts WR Keenan Allen (groin) out vs. Commanders in LondonESPN · Oct 3, 2026
StatusPreviously

Added to Week 4 injury report Thursday limited with groin injury after resting Wednesday.

Colts Wire · Oct 1, 2026
Fantasy football last-minute pickups for Week 4: Raymond, Waller among top options

If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.

ESPN · Oct 3, 2026
Sources: Colts' Keenan Allen faces minimum 3-game suspension

Colts wide receiver Keenan Allen, who was formally charged last week with two misdemeanor offenses stemming from his drunken driving arrest in downtown Indianapolis last month, is facing a minimum three-game suspension, sources told ESPN.

ESPN · Sep 20, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDavid MontgomeryKeenan Allen
Projected points
Consensus rankRB22WR59
Opponent vs positionDAL · 21 of 323-game sampleWSH · 30 of 323-game sample
Rushing Yards28 of 32—
Rushing TDs25 of 32—
Rushing Attempts29 of 32—
Receptions9 of 3232 of 32
Receiving Yards8 of 3230 of 32
Anytime TD25 of 3231 of 32
Receiving TDs—31 of 32
Targets—28 of 32
Target share6%21%
Reception share10%20%
Implied total · spread25.0-2.524.5+1.5
Depth chartRB1WR2
Snap share55%64%
Injury designation—out
Start/Sit record0–1+2 toss-ups—

Recent form

David Montgomery — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Keenan Allen — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs HOU
Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 13.5 vs 11.3 projected PPR pointsDavid Montgomery +
  • Rank 22 vs 59David Montgomery +
  • Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 30 (32 = softest)Keenan Allen +
  • Implied 25.0 vs 24.5 team pointsDavid Montgomery +
  • A ruled-out player cannot be a startDavid Montgomery +
  • 55% vs 64% snap shareKeenan Allen +

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