Darren Waller or Makai Lemon: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Darren Waller and Makai Lemon grade out even this week. Waller's best edge is the matchup (32 of 32 to 12), Lemon's best edge is snap share (66% to 43%) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Darren Waller
6.38.210.1 Projected Points
Makai Lemon
6.98.710.5 Projected Points
Darren Waller’s market
Makai Lemon’s market
Why Darren Waller
Toss-Up· lowBackup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.
Softest DvP (32 of 32) and a 9.3 projection, but a 43% snap share and a thin 3-game DvP sample keep Waller a fringe TE1/TE2 call.
- DET ranks 32 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 43% snap share.
The call
- Matchup grades as the best possible: DET ranks 32 of 32 vs TEs. That rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, though, so it's a soft tailwind rather than a lock.
- Usage is the worry. A 43% snap share and 12% target share are part-time numbers, which leaves his weekly floor dependent on red-zone looks.
- Production has been real. CBS reports 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs through three games and says he's leading the Panthers in receptions and targets. Those two TDs carry a lot of his line, and scores are hard to repeat.
- A 22.3 implied total with a 3.0 spread suggests a competitive script with enough volume. Start him over a TE in the low-8 projection range; take a TE with a full-time route share and a similar projection over him.
Latest on Waller
Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.
CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.
The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Makai Lemon
StartRookie WR3 in slot-heavy role. Quick separator with reliable hands and yards-after-catch juice.
Start — WR50 consensus, projects WR37 this week: 11% target share, 10.5 PPR projected vs LAR.
- LAR ranks 12 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed WR-3 on the latest depth chart with a 66% snap share.
Latest on Lemon
Makai Lemon is expected to take on a larger role in the offensive game plan against the Rams with DeVonta Smith ruled out.
Makai Lemon is ready to face his hometown teamphiladelphiaeagles.com · Oct 3, 2026Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Darren Waller | Makai Lemon |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.38.210.1 | 6.98.710.5 |
| Consensus rank | — | WR50 |
| Opponent vs position | DET · 32 of 323-game sample | LAR · 12 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 32 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 32 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 32 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Targets | 32 of 32 | 3 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 32 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Target share | 12% | 11% |
| Reception share | 14% | 13% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.3+3.0 | 23.0+1.5 |
| Depth chart | TE2 | WR3 |
| Snap share | 43% | 66% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | 0–1 |
Recent form
Darren Waller — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CLE | 5.17.610.1 |
| Week 2 | vs ATL | 15.316.818.3 |
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 2.83.84.8 |
Makai Lemon — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CHI | 2.94.45.9 |
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 0.91.41.9 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | -0.51.02.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 10.1 vs 10.5 projected PPR pointsMakai Lemon +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 32 vs 12 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
- Implied 22.3 vs 23.0 team pointsMakai Lemon +
- No injury designationseven
- 43% vs 66% snap shareMakai Lemon +
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