D'Andre Swift or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Swift — the projection and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.

D'Andre Swift projects 14.9 to Andrews's 10.0 and draws the softer matchup (NYJ ranks 16 of 32 against RBs; TEN ranks 5). Andrews's edge is the consensus rank, TE15 to RB21. The gap is comfortable.

D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift

RB21CHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium
Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs TEN

Projected Points

Start· low

D'Andre Swift’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
-140
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Mark Andrews’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-156 / +122
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 34.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+150
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why D'Andre Swift

Start· medium

RB1 and lead back. Explosive one-cut runner off 1,000-plus rushing yards with steady passing-game usage.

RB21 with a 65% snap share, favored by 8.5 with a 27.0 implied total — positive script outweighs a neutral NYJ matchup.

  • NYJ ranks 16 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 65% snap share.

The call

  • Game script is the driver: an -8.5 spread and 27.0 implied team total point to a lead and heavy late-game rushing volume, plus scoring chances.
  • Role is solid: a 65% snap share and 10% target share keep him involved on early downs and give him a PPR floor, supporting a 14.9-point projection.
  • Matchup is neutral at 16 of 32 in DvP, and that read rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't move the call either way.
  • No injury designation. RB21 is a comfortable RB2/flex start over typical replacement options, but the snap share isn't bellcow-level, which keeps confidence at medium.

Latest on Swift

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· low

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

A 25% target share on a 28.0-point implied offense outweighs a tough, thin-sample TEN matchup. TE15 makes him a fringe TE1 start.

  • TEN ranks 5 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 28.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 65% snap share.

The call

  • Usage is the anchor. A 25% target share over 3 games is TE1-caliber volume, even with a modest 65% snap share.
  • The offense should score. A 28.0 implied team total means plenty of red-zone trips, and Andrews has touchdown upside on every one.
  • The matchup looks bad on paper: TEN ranks 5 of 32 vs TEs. That is only a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so don't overweight it.
  • Risks: the -8.5 spread could produce a run-heavy second half that cuts his routes, and a 10.0 projection at TE15 sits near replacement level. Pivot only if you have a TE ranked inside the top 12 with a softer matchup. The ESPN headline about Mike Clay being 'conflicted' is unverified and doesn't change the read.

Latest on Andrews

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricD'Andre SwiftMark Andrews
Projected points
Consensus rankRB21TE15
Opponent vs positionNYJ · 16 of 323-game sampleTEN · 5 of 323-game sample
Rushing Yards10 of 32—
Rushing TDs17 of 32—
Rushing Attempts4 of 32—
Receptions17 of 326 of 32
Receiving Yards21 of 321 of 32
Anytime TD25 of 329 of 32
Receiving TDs—1 of 32
Targets—6 of 32
Target share10%25%
Reception share12%25%
Implied total · spread27.0-8.528.0-8.5
Depth chartRB1TE1
Snap share65%65%
Start/Sit record2–0+1 toss-up1–2

Recent form

D'Andre Swift — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Mark Andrews — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs DAL
Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Signal breakdown

  • 14.9 vs 10.0 projected PPR pointsD'Andre Swift +
  • Rank 21 vs 15Mark Andrews +
  • Opponent DvP rank 16 vs 5 (32 = softest)D'Andre Swift +
  • Implied 27.0 vs 28.0 team pointsMark Andrews +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 65% vs 65% snap shareMark Andrews +

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