Dalton Schultz or Deebo Samuel Sr.: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Start Schultz for the stronger role-based floor, though Deebo keeps it close

Schultz's TE1 role and 22% target share give him the more dependable route to production, making the narrow edge meaningful despite his lower raw projection. Deebo's softer Denver matchup, higher projection and manufactured-touch role keep the choice close, but his 14% target share leaves him more dependent on designed plays than a full receiving workload. Schultz's recent 26-point spike shows his ceiling, while the 6.0 and 7.5 around it expose the real risk: his volume can still yield a quiet fantasy day.

What flips it: A meaningful increase in Deebo's receiving role, closing the gap with Schultz's current target share.

AI editor

Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz

TE21HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· low
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR53SFvs DEN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low

Dalton Schultz’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-141 / +110
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 44.5
-113 / -111
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+215
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Deebo Samuel Sr.’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+165
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DEN@
SFSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Dalton Schultz

Start· low

TE1 in high-volume pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover over the middle with sure hands.

22% target share in an offense implied for 25.0 points gives Schultz a usable floor, though his TE21 consensus rank sits outside TE1 range.

  • His chain-moving role over the middle can keep him involved without needing a long gain or a designed touch.
  • The 26-point recent peak shows he can outproduce his low-end TE standing when the role clicks.

The call

  • Usage is the selling point. A 22% target share through 3 games is strong volume for a tight end, and he carries no injury designation.
  • Game environment helps. An implied team total of 25.0 as a 2.5-point favorite points to a productive, balanced script with scoring chances.
  • The matchup is mildly favorable at 21 of 32 against the position. It rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it adds little.
  • The risk is his ceiling. A 63% snap share and a 9.0-point projection at TE21 make him a streaming-level start. Any healthy top-12 tight end should start over him.

Latest on Schultz

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Toss-Up· low

Starting WR and hybrid weapon. Yards-after-catch bully used on jet sweeps and manufactured touches.

WR53 at 10.7 projected with a 14% target share is flex-fringe; a solid 24.5 team total offsets a tougher DEN matchup (8 of 32).

  • Jet sweeps and other manufactured touches give him ways to produce beyond routine receiver targets.
  • Two double-digit outings in his last three show the upside Schultz's steadier role may not match.

The call

  • The model leans start, but a consensus WR53 rank and a 10.7-point projection sit below typical 12-team starting and flex thresholds. This is a depth-dependent call, not a clear start.
  • Usage is modest for a WR-2. A 59% snap share and 14% target share over 3 games cap his floor and leave him reliant on efficiency or a big play.
  • Game environment helps. A 24.5 implied total and a -2.5 spread point to a competitive, productive offense. DEN grades as a tougher draw at 8 of 32, but that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so don't overweight it.
  • Start him if your alternative is a similar-tier WR5 or a bye-week fill-in. Sit him for any flex option projected clearly above 10.7.

Latest on Samuel

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDalton SchultzDeebo Samuel Sr.
Projected points
Consensus rankTE21WR53
Opponent vs positionDAL · 21 of 323-game sampleDEN · 8 of 323-game sample
Receptions19 of 321 of 32
Receiving Yards19 of 3216 of 32
Receiving TDs27 of 327 of 32
Targets13 of 3212 of 32
Anytime TD26 of 326 of 32
Target share22%14%
Reception share26%15%
Implied total · spread25.0-2.524.5-2.5
Depth chartTE1WR2
Snap share63%59%
Start/Sit record0–11–0+3 toss-ups

Recent form

Dalton Schultz — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Deebo Samuel Sr. — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs ARI
Week 2vs MIA
Week 1vs LAR

Signal breakdown

  • 9.0 vs 10.7 projected PPR pointsDeebo Samuel Sr. +
  • Rank 21 vs 53Dalton Schultz +
  • Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 8 (32 = softest)Dalton Schultz +
  • Implied 25.0 vs 24.5 team pointsDalton Schultz +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 63% vs 59% snap shareDalton Schultz +

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