Colston Loveland or Josh Downs: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Downs’ slot volume gives him the narrow PPR edge

Downs’ slot role and 26% target share give him the more dependable path to catches against Washington’s soft matchup. Loveland has the stronger team scoring outlook, a full-time snap role and a TE3 consensus standing, but his 10% target share makes that advantage harder to cash in. Downs’ WR48 consensus rank and Indianapolis’ lower implied total keep this close; the matchup sample is also only three games, so the edge is narrow rather than comfortable.

What flips it: A meaningful drop in Downs’ target share, or a clear rise in Loveland’s target role.

AI editor

In standard and half-PPR scoring this is a coin flip.

Colston Loveland

Colston Loveland

TE3CHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Sit
Josh Downs

Josh Downs

WR48INDvs WSH

Projected Points

Start· medium

Colston Loveland’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
+105 / -134
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 31.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+250
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Josh Downs’s market

REC
O/U 5.5
+116 / -148
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 60.5
-135 / +100
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+190
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →

Why Colston Loveland

Sit

TE1 and pass-catching mismatch. Seam-stretching move tight end with flex alignment and rising target volume.

Sit — TE3 consensus, projects TE17 this week: NYJ is the 4th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 10% target share.

  • Chicago’s stronger scoring outlook gives Loveland a better setting to turn a limited number of targets into a touchdown.
  • His TE1 role and TE3 standing matter at a position where a scoring play can swing the comparison.

Latest on Loveland

Where has Bears TE Colston Loveland been this season?

The tight end has one catch and faces a tough Eagles defense on MNF. With no Caleb Williams, can he get going?

ESPN · Sep 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Josh Downs

Start· medium

WR2 working primarily from the slot. Twitchy separator with reliable chain-moving production.

26% target share on 80% snaps vs a WSH defense ranked 30th of 32 vs WRs — volume plus a soft matchup outweighs the WR48 rank.

  • Downs’ slot role supports repeatable involvement; Washington’s soft matchup adds to the appeal.
  • The WR48 consensus rank and lower team scoring outlook are real limits on his ceiling.

The call

  • Role is locked in: 80% snap share and a 26% target share over 3 games make Downs a featured target, not a rotational piece.
  • Matchup grades soft at 30 of 32 vs WRs, though it rests on a 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so treat it as a tailwind, not a guarantee.
  • Game script is neutral-to-favorable: a 24.5 implied team total and a 1.5 spread point to a competitive game with steady passing volume. The 13.7-point projection sits at flex-worthy level in 12-team PPR.
  • The WR48 consensus rank is the main drag and keeps confidence at medium. The colts.com headline touting his chemistry with Daniel Jones is unverified but consistent with the target data. No injury designation.

Latest on Downs

5 Colts Things: Josh Downs' chemistry with Daniel Jones shines, DeForest Buckner dominates, Cowboys-Ravens game shows importance of Rigoberto Sanchez's kickoffs

The Colts' narrow win over the Houston Texans required both standout performances and sneaky important contributions for this group to earn its first victory of 2026.

colts.com · Sep 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricColston LovelandJosh Downs
Projected points
Consensus rankTE3WR48
Opponent vs positionNYJ · 4 of 323-game sampleWSH · 30 of 323-game sample
Receptions8 of 3232 of 32
Receiving Yards8 of 3230 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 3231 of 32
Targets3 of 3228 of 32
Anytime TD1 of 3231 of 32
Target share10%26%
Reception share8%22%
Implied total · spread27.0-8.524.5+1.5
Depth chartTE1WR1
Snap share84%80%
Start/Sit record—1–0

Recent form

Colston Loveland — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Josh Downs — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs HOU
Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 8.7 vs 13.6 projected PPR pointsJosh Downs +
  • Rank 3 vs 48Colston Loveland +
  • Opponent DvP rank 4 vs 30 (32 = softest)Josh Downs +
  • Implied 27.0 vs 24.5 team pointsColston Loveland +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 84% vs 80% snap shareColston Loveland +

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