Colston Loveland or Darren Waller: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Loveland’s near-every-down role wins a narrow call

Loveland is the narrow head-to-head choice, not a reason to override his page’s SIT verdict: his steadier role and Chicago’s stronger scoring outlook give him the better route to opportunity. Waller has the friendlier matchup, and CBS reports he is leading Carolina in targets and receptions, so his upside is real (CBS Sports 2026-09-29). But the matchup signal comes from only three games, while Loveland’s larger snap role is the sturdier separator. Loveland’s low target share is the risk: if those snaps don’t turn into looks, Waller’s recent connection with Bryce Young can decide it (ESPN 2026-09-24).

What flips it: Waller earning a durable every-down role while Loveland’s target volume stays low.

Sources: CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 24, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 28, 2026

AI editor

Colston Loveland

Colston Loveland

TE3CHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Sit
Darren Waller

Darren Waller

TECARvs DET

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low

Colston Loveland’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-104 / -123
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 33.5
-115 / -109
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+265
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Darren Waller’s market

REC
O/U 2.5
-134 / +105
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 27.5
-115 / -109
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+235
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DET@
CARSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Colston Loveland

Sit

TE1 and pass-catching mismatch. Seam-stretching move tight end with flex alignment and rising target volume.

Sit — TE3 consensus, projects TE17 this week: NYJ is the 4th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 10% target share.

  • His seam-stretching TE1 role gives Chicago a mismatch option even against a defense that has been difficult on tight ends.
  • The recent scoring swings underline the risk that his snaps don’t become dependable targets (ESPN 2026-09-28).

Latest on Loveland

Where has Bears TE Colston Loveland been this season?

The tight end has one catch and faces a tough Eagles defense on MNF. With no Caleb Williams, can he get going?

ESPN · Sep 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Darren Waller

Toss-Up· low

Softest TE matchup (32 of 32) and 2 TDs in 3 games pull him up, but a 43% snap share and 12% target share keep a 9.3-point floor shaky.

  • Waller’s red-zone connection with Bryce Young gives him a direct path to touchdowns (ESPN 2026-09-24).
  • His first-three-game target and reception lead supports the idea that his role can outproduce his limited snaps (CBS Sports 2026-09-29).

The call

  • Matchup is the selling point: DET grades 32 of 32 vs TEs, the softest in the league, though it rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so treat it as a lean, not a lock.
  • Production has been real. CBS Sports reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs through three games. The 22.3 implied team total supports another scoring chance.
  • Usage is the red flag. A 43% snap share and 12% target share are part-time numbers for a TE, so his output leans on touchdowns. The ESPN top-10 headline is unverified.
  • What tips it: start him over a TE with a similar 9-point projection but a weaker matchup. Sit him for any every-down TE with a steadier target share.

Latest on Waller

Role

Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.

CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026
Panthers' Bryce Young to Darren Waller has been money in red zone

The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.

ESPN · Sep 24, 2026
Darren Waller shines in his homecoming, with a full-circle, two-touchdown day for the Panthers

The veteran tight end played in his hometown for the first time in six years and reminded everyone why he's one of the most feared red zone options on the field.

panthers.com · Sep 20, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricColston LovelandDarren Waller
Projected points
Consensus rankTE3—
Opponent vs positionNYJ · 4 of 323-game sampleDET · 32 of 323-game sample
Receptions8 of 3232 of 32
Receiving Yards8 of 3232 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 3232 of 32
Targets3 of 3232 of 32
Anytime TD1 of 3232 of 32
Target share10%12%
Reception share8%14%
Implied total · spread27.0-8.522.3+3.0
Depth chartTE1TE2
Snap share84%43%
Start/Sit record—0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Colston Loveland — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Darren Waller — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CLE
Week 2vs ATL
Week 1vs CHI

Signal breakdown

  • 8.7 vs 9.3 projected PPR pointsDarren Waller +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 4 vs 32 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
  • Implied 27.0 vs 22.3 team pointsColston Loveland +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 84% vs 43% snap shareColston Loveland +

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