Chris Olave or Juwan Johnson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Olave for the Saints’ clearest path to steady target volume

Olave’s primary-target role gives him the more dependable weekly foundation, so the projection gap reflects more than a simple WR-versus-TE comparison. Both Saints face the same game environment, and Johnson’s tiny DvP edge is too slight—and based on too little data—to offset Olave’s advantage in role and usage. Johnson is still a viable low-end streamer, with his red-zone mismatch offering a touchdown route to outscore his baseline. Olave’s risk is that Atlanta’s matchup is not especially favorable, limiting the ceiling of his stronger workload.

What flips it: A change that removes Olave from the Saints’ primary-target role.

AI editor

Chris Olave

Chris Olave

WR10NOvs ATL

Projected Points

Start
Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson

TE16NOvs ATL

Projected Points

Start· low

Chris Olave’s market

REC
O/U 6.5
-146 / +115
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 80.5
-117 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+125
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Juwan Johnson’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-110 / -116
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 39.5
-115 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+230
Anytime Touchdown Props →
ATL@
NOMon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
ATL@
NOMon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETView the game →

Why Chris Olave

Start

WR1 and primary target. Silky route runner with vertical speed and high-volume target share.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR10: ATL is the 11th-softest matchup vs WRs, 24.0 implied team total.

  • As New Orleans’ WR1, Olave’s target volume is tied to a defined role, not merely a favorable game script.
  • His consistent route volume gives you a steadier floor than a tight end whose scoring path leans more on the red zone.

Latest on Olave

Tyler Shough's late-game heroics have Saints' confidence soaring

The second-year quarterback has been at his best this season when the game is on the line. Can he keep that up?

ESPN · Sep 22, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Juwan Johnson

Start· low

TE1 and high-volume pass-catcher. Big-bodied converted receiver who is a red-zone and intermediate mismatch.

TE16 with a 10.6-point projection, a softer ATL matchup (23 of 32) and a 24.0 team total. A fringe TE1 who is playable as a streamer.

  • Johnson’s size and converted-receiver skill set create a genuine mismatch near the goal line.
  • His recent spike shows the ceiling is there, even if it is less dependable week to week.

The call

  • Matchup leans favorable: ATL ranks 23 of 32 vs TEs (32 = softest), but it's a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so don't lean on it heavily.
  • Role is steady if unspectacular: 66% snap share and 15% target share with no injury designation give him a reliable floor for the position.
  • Game script is neutral-to-good. The offense is a 2.5-point favorite with a 24.0 implied total, which supports red-zone chances.
  • TE16 sits just outside TE1 range in 12-team leagues. Start him over waiver-level options, but a top-12 TE with a better target share should take precedence.

Latest on Johnson

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricChris OlaveJuwan Johnson
Projected points
Consensus rankWR10TE16
Opponent vs positionATL · 22 of 323-game sampleATL · 23 of 323-game sample
Receptions30 of 3222 of 32
Receiving Yards32 of 3218 of 32
Receiving TDs8 of 3227 of 32
Targets32 of 3224 of 32
Anytime TD7 of 3226 of 32
Target share29%15%
Reception share30%17%
Implied total · spread24.0-2.524.0-2.5
Depth chartWR1TE1
Snap share85%66%
Start/Sit record—0–0+3 toss-ups

Recent form

Chris Olave — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs LV
Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Juwan Johnson — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs LV
Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Signal breakdown

  • 18.2 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsChris Olave +
  • Rank 10 vs 16Chris Olave +
  • Opponent DvP rank 22 vs 23 (32 = softest)Juwan Johnson +
  • Implied 24.0 vs 24.0 team pointseven
  • No injury designationseven
  • 85% vs 66% snap shareChris Olave +

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