Bears D/ST or Colts D/ST: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Bears D/ST wins this comparison on trust and game environment
Chicago wins this comparison because the model treats its far stronger crowd backing as more meaningful than Indianapolis' small projection edge. The Bears also face the lower implied scoring environment, while the Colts' best counter is Houston's slightly softer sack allowance; Houston's lower turnover rate keeps that path from being decisive. Treat this as a narrow head-to-head win, not a contradiction of Chicago's published SIT call or Indianapolis' START call: the actual risk is a Colts sack-led splash outing.
What flips it: A late Houston turnover uptick or Philadelphia scoring downgrade.
AI editor
Bears D/ST
4.34.34.3 Projected Points
Colts D/ST
4.74.74.7 Projected Points
Why Bears D/ST
SitSit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 24): 4.3 pts projected vs PHI.
- Chicago's stronger crowd backing is the model's separator, despite no projection edge.
- Philadelphia's lower scoring expectation gives this unit a safer floor than its DST24 label suggests.
Why Colts D/ST
StartStart — the No. 21 defensive matchup this week: 4.7 pts projected vs HOU.
- Indianapolis has the better sack setup, but Houston's lower turnover rate narrows the splash-play path.
- The Colts' 1% usage is a warning about trust, not evidence that the unit lacks a usable route.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Bears D/ST | Colts D/ST |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.34.34.3 | 4.74.74.7 |
| Projection rank | Proj.DST24 | Proj.DST21 |
| Started in | 11% of leagues | 1% of leagues |
| Opponent sacks allowed / game | 2.3(2025) | 2.6(2025) |
| Opponent turnovers / game | 0.9(2025) | 0.7(2025) |
| Opponent implied total | 22.5 | 23.5 |
| Home / away | Home | Home |
| Start/Sit record | 1–1 | — |
Recent form
Bears D/ST — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs MIN | 8.08.08.0 |
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 2.02.02.0 |
Colts D/ST — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs KC | -5.0-5.0-5.0 |
| Week 1 | vs BAL | -5.0-5.0-5.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 4.3 vs 4.7 projected PPR pointsColts D/ST +
- Started rank 17 vs 30 (11% vs 1% of leagues)Bears D/ST +
- 2.3 sacks / 0.9 TO vs 2.6 sacks / 0.7 TO per game allowedColts D/ST +
- Opponent implied 22.5 vs 23.5 pointsBears D/ST +
- Home vs Homeeven
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