Chase McLaughlin or Ka'imi Fairbairn: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Fairbairn — the consensus rank and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.
Ka'imi Fairbairn is the higher consensus play (K4 to K15) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.8 to 1.4 per game). No signal favors McLaughlin this week. The gap is wide.
Chase McLaughlin
K15TBvs CLE
8.88.88.8 Projected Points
Start· medium
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K4HOUvs CIN
9.89.89.8 Projected Points
Start· high
Why Chase McLaughlin
Start· mediumStarting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.
24.0 implied total, calm open-air conditions and 84% accuracy (32/38) make McLaughlin a fine K15 play with 1.8 FGs and 2.4 XPs projected.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- TB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has TB at 24 points as 5.5-point favorites.
The call
- Tampa's 24.0 implied total and -5.5 spread point to a full complement of scoring chances — 2.1 FG attempts plus 2.4 extra points projected.
- 1.4 red-zone stalls per game is the sweet spot for a kicker: the offense moves the ball but leaves enough drives short for field-goal tries.
- McLaughlin is locked in as PK1 with no designation, hit 84% (32/38) and has a 50-plus make in 7 games with a long of 65 — the bonus-range upside other K15s don't have.
- Calm forecast under an open roof removes the weather variable that usually separates kicker outcomes.
Why Ka'imi Fairbairn
Start· highVeteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.
K4 with 9.8 projected, 24.5 implied total, 1.8 red-zone stalls per game and a 92% leg under a retractable roof — no weather risk.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
- HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has HOU at 24.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
The call
- Ranked K4 at 9.8 projected points with 2.4 FG attempts and 2.3 extra points — that's top-tier volume for the K slot in a 12-team league.
- Houston's 1.8 red-zone stalls per game keep converting into field-goal tries, and a 24.5 implied total means plenty of trips inside the 30.
- Fairbairn is hitting 92% (44/48) with a 57-yard long and six games with a 50-plus make, so the long-range attempts are live points, not dead ones.
- Retractable roof with a calm forecast either way removes the wind variable that separates kickers, and he's the locked-in PK1 with no designation.
Latest on Fairbairn
VideoESPN · Sep 20, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Chase McLaughlin | Ka'imi Fairbairn |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.88.88.8 | 9.89.89.8 |
| Consensus rank | K15 | K4 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.4(2025) | 1.8(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Retractable roof, calm forecast either way |
| Implied total · spread | 24.0-5.5 | 24.5-2.5 |
| Field-goal % | 84.2%(2025) | 91.7%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Recent form
Chase McLaughlin — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs CIN | 11.011.011.0 |
Ka'imi Fairbairn — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs BUF | 9.09.09.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 8.8 vs 9.8 projected PPR pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
- Rank 15 vs 4Ka'imi Fairbairn +
- 2.1 vs 2.4 projected attemptsKa'imi Fairbairn +
- 1.4 vs 1.8 red-zone stalls per gameKa'imi Fairbairn +
- 3 mph, 86°F, clear vs 3 mph, 93°F, overcasteven
- Implied 24.0 vs 24.5 team pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
- No injury designationseven
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