Cameron Dicker or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Dicker is the K2 consensus play at 10.3 projected points and the locked PK1 with no injury designation — nothing to think about at the position.
• A 28.5 implied team total and -11.5 spread means volume: 3.1 projected extra points plus 2.3 field-goal attempts, and the offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times per game to create those tries.
• Indoors with no weather risk, and he's hit 38 of 41 (93%) with a 59-yard long and five games with a 50-plus make — the range keeps low-end outcomes off the table.

The call

• The environment is clean: retractable roof with a calm forecast either way, so no wind or precipitation risk on his 2.1 projected attempts, and he's been 93% (13/14) on the year with a long of 52.
• Scoring opportunity is fine but not special — 23.0 implied total, 2.0 projected extra points and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game, which is what gets him to 1.8 made field goals.
• The problem is the tier: 8.2 projected points and a K18 consensus rank mean he's outside the 12 kickers a standard league actually starts, so he's not clearly better than a replacement option.
• He's the PK1 with no injury designation, so role isn't the issue — if your alternative sits in a worse weather spot or on an offense with a lower implied total, Shrader is the play.