Cameron Dicker or Daniel Carlson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Dicker — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Cameron Dicker is the higher consensus play (K2 to K21) and projects 9.1 to Carlson's 8.8. Carlson's edge is the weather, a dome to 13 mph wind, overcast. The gap is narrow.

Cameron Dicker

Cameron Dicker

K2LACvs BUF

Projected Points

Start
Daniel Carlson

Daniel Carlson

K21NOvs LV

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
LAC@
BUFSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LV@
NOSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Cameron Dicker

Start

Starting kicker with elite accuracy and big-leg range. Among the league's most reliable placekickers.

Start — K2 by consensus, projects K6 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.1 pts projected vs BUF.

  • 13 mph wind at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
  • 2.2 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • LAC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has LAC at 22.8 points as 3-point dogs.

Why Daniel Carlson

Toss-Up· medium

Veteran placekicker with big-leg range. Established accuracy over a long starting run.

Dome game, 23.0 implied total and 2.2 projected FGA give a clean floor, but K21 consensus rank puts him just outside the 12-team starter tier.

  • Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
  • 2.2 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • NO's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has NO at 23 points as 3.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Environment is as good as it gets for a kicker: indoors with no weather risk, 82% accuracy (22/27) and a 50-plus make in 4 games with a 60-yard long, so the deep tries are live.
  • Volume is the question — 1.8 FGs on 2.2 attempts plus 2.5 extra points off a 23.0 implied total is a middling 8.9-point projection, and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game is the main source of FG chances rather than a high-scoring script.
  • Role is locked (PK1, no injury designation), so nothing here is a health or usage risk — it is purely a tier question at K21.
  • Tip-in: if your alternative is a kicker outdoors or attached to a team with an implied total under ~22, start Carlson; if you have a top-12 kicker in a similar dome, sit him.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCameron DickerDaniel Carlson
Projected points
Consensus rankK2K21
Projected FG attempts2.22.2
Red-zone stalls / game1.31.5(2025)
Kicking conditions13 mph wind forecast at kickoffIndoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread22.8+3.023.0-3.5
Field-goal %92.7%(2025)81.5%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–20–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Cameron Dicker — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs LV
Week 1vs ARI

Daniel Carlson — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Signal breakdown

  • 9.1 vs 8.8 projected PPR pointsCameron Dicker +
  • Rank 2 vs 21Cameron Dicker +
  • 2.2 vs 2.2 projected attemptsCameron Dicker +
  • 1.3 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
  • 13 mph, 69°F, overcast vs domeDaniel Carlson +
  • Implied 22.8 vs 23.0 team pointsDaniel Carlson +
  • No injury designationseven

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