Bills D/ST or Colts D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start the Bills — the lineup-share and opponent scoring edges are too wide to ignore.

Bills D/ST is started in more leagues (started rank 23 to 27) and faces the lower-scoring offense (24.8 implied points to 27.0). the Colts's edge is the projection, 3.9 to 3.5. The gap is comfortable.

Bills D/ST

D/STBUFvs DET

Projected Points

Sit

Colts D/ST

D/STINDvs KC

Projected Points

Sit
DET@
BUFThu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
IND@
KCSun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Bills D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 27): Vegas has DET at 24.8 points, and 3.5 pts projected vs DET.

  • DET's offense gives up 3.0 sacks and 0.9 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
  • Vegas has DET at 24.8 points as 3-point dogs.
  • Over-started: 3% of leagues have them in, 23rd among defenses, against a No. 27 matchup.

Why Colts D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 24): Vegas has KC at 27 points, and 3.9 pts projected vs KC.

  • KC's offense gives up 2.9 sacks and 0.9 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
  • Vegas has KC at 27 points as 6.5-point favorites.
  • Under-started: only 1% of leagues have them in, 27th among defenses, against a No. 24 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

MetricBills D/STColts D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST27Proj.DST24
Started in3% of leagues1% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game3.0(2025)2.9(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game0.9(2025)0.9(2025)
Opponent implied total24.827.0
Home / awayHomeAway

Recent form

Bills D/ST — last 1 week

Week 1vs HOU

Colts D/ST — last 1 week

Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 3.5 vs 3.9 projected PPR pointsColts D/ST +
  • Started rank 23 vs 27 (3% vs 1% of leagues)Bills D/ST +
  • 3.0 sacks / 0.9 TO vs 2.9 sacks / 0.9 TO per game allowedBills D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 24.8 vs 27.0 pointsBills D/ST +
  • Home vs AwayBills D/ST +

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