Bills D/ST or Lions D/ST: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Detroit's home-favorite script makes the Lions the clear defensive play
Start the Lions D/ST: home field, a strong favorite's game script and New Orleans' turnover profile give this unit several paths to a usable day. The Bills still have a pressure route, but playing away against Houston's higher implied total leaves less room for defensive points and a safer floor. For a weekly defense, the separation is meaningful rather than cosmetic; Detroit's risk is that the Saints protect the ball and force the Lions to win without takeaways.
What flips it: A sharp rise in New Orleans' implied total or a downgrade to Detroit's home-favorite script.
AI editor
Bills D/ST
4.24.24.2 Projected Points
Lions D/ST
7.47.47.4 Projected Points
Why Bills D/ST
SitSit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 24): 4.2 pts projected vs HOU.
- Buffalo can still get home with pressure, but its road setting makes the takeaway path less dependable.
- Houston's scoring outlook puts extra pressure on the Bills to create sacks or turnovers.
Why Lions D/ST
StartStart — the No. 4 defensive matchup this week: 7.4 pts projected vs NO.
- Detroit's home-favorite setup supports sustained pressure and better field position if New Orleans falls behind.
- The Lions have the stronger floor because New Orleans offers both sack and turnover opportunities.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Bills D/ST | Lions D/ST |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.24.24.2 | 7.47.47.4 |
| Projection rank | Proj.DST24 | Proj.DST4 |
| Started in | 3% of leagues | 66% of leagues |
| Opponent sacks allowed / game | 2.6(2025) | 3.1(2025) |
| Opponent turnovers / game | 0.7(2025) | 1.4(2025) |
| Opponent implied total | 22.0 | 20.8 |
| Home / away | Away | Home |
Signal breakdown
- 4.2 vs 7.4 projected PPR pointsLions D/ST +
- Started rank 22 vs 8 (3% vs 66% of leagues)Lions D/ST +
- 2.6 sacks / 0.7 TO vs 3.1 sacks / 1.4 TO per game allowedLions D/ST +
- Opponent implied 22.0 vs 20.8 pointsLions D/ST +
- Away vs HomeLions D/ST +
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