Start Bills D/ST over Bengals D/ST — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start the Bills — the lineup-share and opponent scoring edges are too wide to ignore.

Bills D/ST is started in more leagues (started rank 21 to 26) and faces the lower-scoring offense (22.0 implied points to 23.5). the Bengals's edge is home field, home to away. The gap is narrow.

Bills D/ST

D/STBUFvs HOU

4.24.24.2 Projected Points

Sit

Bengals D/ST

D/STCINvs TB

4.44.44.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Bills D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 24): 4.2 pts projected vs HOU.

HOU's offense gives up 2.6 sacks and 0.7 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
Over-started: 3% of leagues have them in, 21st among defenses, against a No. 24 matchup.

Why Bengals D/ST

Toss-Up

Toss-up — a middling defensive matchup (No. 21 this week): at home, and 4.4 pts projected vs TB.

TB's offense gives up 2.4 sacks and 0.9 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has TB at 23.5 points as 3.5-point dogs.
Under-started: only 1% of leagues have them in, 26th among defenses, against a No. 21 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Bills D/ST	Bengals D/ST
Projected points	4.24.24.2	4.44.44.4
Projection rank	Proj.DST24	Proj.DST21
Started in	3% of leagues	1% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	2.6(2025)	2.4(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	0.7(2025)	0.9(2025)
Opponent implied total	22.0	23.5
Home / away	Away	Home