Brandon Aubrey or Trey Smack: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Brandon Aubrey: the safer leg in the better scoring environment

Brandon Aubrey separates himself with Dallas' stronger scoring outlook and a controlled roof environment, making his edge more meaningful than a typical kicker projection gap. His elite range and proven accuracy give him multiple ways to cash in when drives stall, while Trey Smack's similar red-zone-stall profile is offset by rain, wind and a lack of NFL regular-season experience. Smack's strong leg is the legitimate counter, but the rookie's path depends more heavily on Green Bay creating clean opportunities in worse conditions. Aubrey's main risk is Dallas converting drives into touchdowns instead of settling for field goals.

What flips it: A sharp downgrade to Dallas' scoring outlook or a confirmed roof issue that creates wind.

AI editor

Brandon Aubrey

Brandon Aubrey

K1DALvs WSH

Projected Points

Start· high
Trey Smack

Trey Smack

K18GBvs NYJ

Projected Points

Toss-Up
WSH@
DALSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
GB@
NYJSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Brandon Aubrey

Start· high

Starting K with elite leg strength. Reliable from extreme distance and on kickoffs.

K1 with 10.6 projected, 28.0 implied total and a calm retractable-roof game — Aubrey's 86% accuracy and 64-yard range make him the top K play.

  • The retractable roof removes the weather variable from an already favorable scoring setup.
  • His proven long-range accuracy gives Dallas more viable field-goal decisions than most offenses.

The call

  • Consensus K1 at 10.6 projected points with 2.4 FG attempts and 3.2 extra points — that's the highest-volume kicker profile on the board.
  • Dallas' 28.0 implied total plus 1.6 red-zone stalls per game means both touchdown drives (XPs) and stalled drives (FG tries) pay off.
  • Weather is a non-issue: retractable roof with a calm forecast either way, so his 64-yard long and seven games with a 50-plus make stay live.
  • Locked in as PK1 with no injury designation — zero role or availability risk.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

Toss-up — K18 by consensus, projects K13 this week: rain in the forecast, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

  • Smack's strong leg preserves upside if Green Bay stalls in scoring range.
  • His red-zone-stall profile keeps the attempt path competitive despite the tougher forecast.

Head-to-head stats

MetricBrandon AubreyTrey Smack
Projected points
Consensus rankK1K18
Projected FG attempts2.42.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.6(2025)1.5(2025)
Kicking conditionsRetractable roof, calm forecast either way11 mph wind and rain forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread28.0-4.524.0-5.5
Field-goal %85.7%(2025)—
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record—0–0+2 toss-ups

Recent form

Brandon Aubrey — last 1 week

Week 1vs NYG

Trey Smack — last 1 week

Week 1vs MIN

Signal breakdown

  • 10.6 vs 8.6 projected PPR pointsBrandon Aubrey +
  • Rank 1 vs 18Brandon Aubrey +
  • 2.4 vs 2.0 projected attemptsBrandon Aubrey +
  • 1.6 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameBrandon Aubrey +
  • 7 mph, 99°F, clear vs 11 mph, 67°F, drizzleBrandon Aubrey +
  • Implied 28.0 vs 24.0 team pointsBrandon Aubrey +
  • No injury designationseven

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