Aaron Jones Sr. or Garrett Wilson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Aaron Jones Sr. and Garrett Wilson grade out even this week. Jones's best edge is the game script (25.5 implied points to 18.5), Wilson's best edge is the consensus rank (WR13 to RB35) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
In standard and half-PPR scoring this flips to Jones.
Aaron Jones Sr.
15.016.117.2 Projected Points
Garrett Wilson
9.012.215.3 Projected Points
Aaron Jones Sr.’s market
Garrett Wilson’s market
Why Aaron Jones Sr.
Start· mediumRB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.
69% snap share as a 7.5-point favorite with a 25.5 implied total sets up a positive script; 17.2-point projection clears RB2 range.
- MIA ranks 26 of 32 against RBs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 25.5 team points as 7.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 69% snap share.
The call
- Game script is the driver: the offense is favored by 7.5 with a 25.5 implied total, the kind of lead-protecting environment that feeds a lead back carries late.
- Role is secure at a 69% snap share, and a 10% target share adds a PPR floor on top of the rushing work.
- The matchup grades soft (26 of 32 vs RBs), but that is a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence. Treat it as a mild tailwind, not a pillar.
- Risk: the RB35 consensus rank sits well below his 17.2-point projection, so the crowd is less bullish. The role and script still justify the flex/RB2 start over replacement options.
Latest on Jones
Vikings RB Aaron Jones Sr. has been cleared to start Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after leaving Week 2's win over the Bears in a knee brace.
The Vikings' offensive backfield is in flux this week as starter Aaron Jones Sr. works through a knee injury and backup Jordan Mason remains on injured reserve.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Garrett Wilson
StartWR1 and alpha target. Elite separation quickness and contested-catch skill; missed time cut his sample last season.
Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR13: CHI is the 8th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 18.5 implied team total caps the ceiling.
- CHI ranks 8 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 18.5 team points as 8.5-point underdogs.
- Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 86% snap share.
Latest on Wilson
Wilson was placed under concussion protocol late in Sunday's game against the Lions but cleared protocol and is expected to be available for Week 4.
SI.com · Sep 28, 2026No. 5 Snagged Team Leading 10 Passes for 107 Yards and a TD
Jets Pass Catcher: ‘We’re Going to Have to be At the Top of Our Game’ Against Lions
The Jets promoted veteran Sterling Shepard from the practice squad, as starting WR Adonai Mitchell is questionable with a finger injury, and three other Jets receivers are on injured reserve.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Aaron Jones Sr. | Garrett Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 15.016.117.2 | 9.012.215.3 |
| Consensus rank | RB35 | WR13 |
| Opponent vs position | MIA · 26 of 323-game sample | CHI · 8 of 323-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 18 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 25 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 27 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 24 of 32 | 5 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 27 of 32 | 13 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 32 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 7 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 8 of 32 |
| Target share | 10% | 28% |
| Reception share | 12% | 27% |
| Implied total · spread | 25.5-7.5 | 18.5+8.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | WR1 |
| Snap share | 69% | 86% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0+2 toss-ups | — |
Recent form
Aaron Jones Sr. — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs TB | 9.211.714.2 |
| Week 2 | vs CHI | 10.510.510.5 |
| Week 1 | vs GB | 10.010.010.0 |
Garrett Wilson — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs DET | 16.721.726.7 |
| Week 2 | vs GB | 11.714.216.7 |
| Week 1 | vs TEN | 7.910.913.9 |
Signal breakdown
- 17.2 vs 15.3 projected PPR pointsAaron Jones Sr. +
- Rank 35 vs 13Garrett Wilson +
- Opponent DvP rank 26 vs 8 (32 = softest)Aaron Jones Sr. +
- Implied 25.5 vs 18.5 team pointsAaron Jones Sr. +
- No injury designationseven
- 69% vs 86% snap shareGarrett Wilson +
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