Trey Smack or Will Reichard: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Reichard has the floor; Smack has the scoring setup to match him

Reichard is the safer kicker on established accuracy and a stronger consensus standing, while Smack benefits from Green Bay's slightly better scoring environment and more frequent red-zone stalls. With both kickers protected from weather in a dome, the small projection and attempt gap is noise rather than a meaningful separator. Smack's real risk is rookie uncertainty without an NFL regular-season sample; Reichard's is a thinner Minnesota scoring outlook, leaving these options level.

What flips it: A confirmed restriction on Smack's long-range opportunities.

AI editor

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Will Reichard

K12MINvs GB

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

Dome game and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game give Smack real FG volume, but K17 with 8.2 projected sits just outside the 12-team starter line.

Green Bay's higher scoring outlook gives Smack a path to offset his weaker ranking.
His strong leg is more valuable if the Packers keep settling for long field goals.

The call

The environment is as clean as it gets: indoors with no weather risk and a 23.0 implied team total, so the 2.0 projected attempts and 2.2 extra points are live rather than wind-suppressed.
His offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times per game, which is the single best predictor of kicker volume — those trips convert into the 1.7 projected makes.
The problem is the ceiling: K17 on the consensus board and 8.2 projected points means roughly five startable kickers rank ahead of him in a 12-team league.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation and a 1.5-point spread keeps this competitive, so if the waiver wire has no dome or high-total kicker better than K17, he's a defensible plug-in.

Why Will Reichard

Start· medium

Starting K with strong leg. Handles kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Dome game, 94% accuracy (33/35) with a 62-yard long and 1.3 red-zone stalls per game make Reichard a clean K12 play with no weather risk.

Reichard's proven accuracy makes his long-range opportunities less speculative.
His cleaner floor supports a start even with Minnesota's less favorable scoring environment.

The call

Indoor game removes the biggest kicker variable — no wind or precipitation to shrink the range on a leg that's already hit from 50-plus in nine games this season.
94% accuracy (33/35) as the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation means every attempt projects as near-automatic points.
An offense that stalls in the red zone 1.3 times per game feeds the FG volume: 2.1 attempts and 2.0 extra points projected off a 21.5 implied total.
The 21.5 implied total is modest and the 1.5 spread means a tight script, but K12 with a dome and this accuracy profile is above replacement in a 12-team league.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Trey Smack	Will Reichard
Projected points	8.28.28.2	8.48.48.4
Consensus rank	K17	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	23.0-1.5	21.5+1.5
Field-goal %	—	94.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—