T.J. Hockenson or Tyler Warren: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Warren: his every-down role gives him the stronger TE foundation
Warren’s much stronger projection gap matters at tight end, where his high-volume, near-every-down role gives him a sturdier path to production. Hockenson’s higher team total and primary middle-of-the-field role keep him in the conversation, but his lower involvement leaves less room to close the gap. Warren’s risk is Indianapolis’ slightly lower scoring outlook: he needs his volume to turn into catches or a scoring chance.
What flips it: A meaningful reduction in Warren’s near-every-down role.
AI editor
T.J. Hockenson
4.56.38.1 Projected Points
Tyler Warren
7.710.413.0 Projected Points
T.J. Hockenson’s market
Tyler Warren’s market
Why T.J. Hockenson
SitTE1 and primary middle-of-field target. Route-savvy seam threat with high-volume usage when healthy.
Sit — TE18 consensus, projects TE21 this week: 19% target share, 8.1 PPR projected vs MIA.
- Hockenson is Minnesota’s primary middle-of-the-field target, giving him a clear route to involvement.
- Minnesota’s stronger scoring outlook gives Hockenson a better chance to benefit from a Vikings scoring drive.
Latest on Hockenson
Loza shares facts to help you decide whether to start players you might feel are borderline in Week 3.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tyler Warren
StartTE1 and high-volume mismatch receiver. Move-piece with contested-catch strength and gadget rushing usage.
Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE4: WSH is the 10th-softest matchup vs TEs, 24.5 implied team total.
- Warren’s mismatch-receiver profile and high snap involvement give him a reliable role, not just a favorable matchup.
- His gadget rushing offers another way to contribute if Indianapolis’ passing game stalls.
Latest on Warren
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Colts-Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | T.J. Hockenson | Tyler Warren |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.56.38.1 | 7.710.413.0 |
| Consensus rank | TE18 | TE4 |
| Opponent vs position | MIA · 17 of 323-game sample | WSH · 23 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 16 of 32 | 13 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 28 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 17 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Targets | 6 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 17 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Target share | 19% | 23% |
| Reception share | 22% | 28% |
| Implied total · spread | 25.5-7.5 | 24.5+1.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 73% | 92% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0 | — |
Recent form
T.J. Hockenson — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs TB | 1.12.13.1 |
| Week 2 | vs CHI | 2.94.45.9 |
| Week 1 | vs GB | 9.611.613.6 |
Tyler Warren — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs HOU | 5.710.214.7 |
| Week 2 | vs KC | 8.411.414.4 |
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 7.38.810.3 |
Signal breakdown
- 8.1 vs 13.0 projected PPR pointsTyler Warren +
- Rank 18 vs 4Tyler Warren +
- Opponent DvP rank 17 vs 23 (32 = softest)Tyler Warren +
- Implied 25.5 vs 24.5 team pointsT.J. Hockenson +
- No injury designationseven
- 73% vs 92% snap shareTyler Warren +
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