T.J. Hockenson or Tyler Allgeier: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Hockenson — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

T.J. Hockenson is the higher consensus play (TE18 to RB48) and plays in the better game script (25.5 implied team points to 19.3). No signal favors Allgeier this week. The gap is wide.

T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson

TE18MINvs MIA

Projected Points

Start
Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier

RB48ARIvs NYG

Projected Points

Sit

T.J. Hockenson’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+170
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Tyler Allgeier’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 18.5
-112 / -112
Rushing Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+280
Anytime Touchdown Props →
MIA@
MINSun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ETView the game →
ARI@
NYGSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why T.J. Hockenson

Start

TE1 and primary middle-of-field target. Route-savvy seam threat with high-volume usage when healthy.

Start — TE18 consensus, projects TE19 this week: 25.5 implied team total, 19% target share.

  • MIA ranks 17 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 25.5 team points as 7.5-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 73% snap share.

Latest on Hockenson

Facts vs. Feelings: Seven start-sit decisions you might be dreading and the facts to guide you through them

Loza shares facts to help you decide whether to start players you might feel are borderline in Week 3.

ESPN · Sep 23, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tyler Allgeier

Sit

Power back splitting a committee backfield. Compact downhill runner and short-yardage/goal-line finisher with red-zone scoring value.

Sit — bench-tier RB at consensus RB48: 7% target share, 8.0 PPR projected vs NYG.

  • NYG ranks 13 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 19.3 team points as 7.0-point underdogs.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share.

Head-to-head stats

MetricT.J. HockensonTyler Allgeier
Projected points
Consensus rankTE18RB48
Opponent vs positionMIA · 17 of 323-game sampleNYG · 13 of 323-game sample
Receptions16 of 329 of 32
Receiving Yards28 of 3211 of 32
Receiving TDs18 of 32—
Targets6 of 32—
Anytime TD18 of 3221 of 32
Rushing Yards—20 of 32
Rushing TDs—8 of 32
Rushing Attempts—9 of 32
Target share19%7%
Reception share22%10%
Implied total · spread25.5-7.519.3+7.0
Depth chartTE1RB2
Snap share73%53%
Start/Sit record1–0—

Recent form

T.J. Hockenson — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs TB
Week 2vs CHI
Week 1vs GB

Tyler Allgeier — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs SF
Week 2vs SEA
Week 1vs LAC

Signal breakdown

  • 8.1 vs 8.0 projected PPR pointsT.J. Hockenson +
  • Rank 18 vs 48T.J. Hockenson +
  • Opponent DvP rank 17 vs 13 (32 = softest)T.J. Hockenson +
  • Implied 25.5 vs 19.3 team pointsT.J. Hockenson +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 73% vs 53% snap shareT.J. Hockenson +

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