Terry McLaurin or Travis Kelce: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Kelce’s positional edge makes him the stronger start
McLaurin’s small projection lead is thin insulation: Kelce’s TE11 standing is stronger relative to his position than McLaurin’s WR22 mark is at wide receiver. McLaurin still has the better scoring environment and a larger share of his team’s targets, giving his WR1 role a real path to lead this pair. Kelce’s steady role and favorable matchup make him the better start, though his lower team scoring outlook and smaller target slice leave him vulnerable if McLaurin’s downfield game breaks through.
What flips it: McLaurin turning his target advantage into a clear weekly scoring cushion.
AI editor
Terry McLaurin
8.810.912.9 Projected Points
Travis Kelce
7.39.511.8 Projected Points
Terry McLaurin’s market
Travis Kelce’s market
Why Terry McLaurin
StartWR1 and offensive centerpiece. Explosive vertical route-runner with elite release package; missed time in 2025.
Start — WR22 consensus, projects WR25 this week: 26.0 implied team total, 24% target share.
- McLaurin’s explosive route-running can turn Washington’s better scoring outlook into chunk gains, not just steady catches.
- His WR1 role gives him a credible ceiling if the Commanders’ passing game converts its chances.
Latest on McLaurin
Experts weigh in on Daniels' latest injury and what it means for him, the Commanders and their collective futures.
John Keim explains why Terry McLaurin has patience amid the Commanders' 0-2 start.
After a short video clip showed a number of Commanders walking past Jayden Daniels as he was being helped by medical personnel Sunday, many players fired back at the takes being spouted on social media, emphasizing, "It's bulls--- what people are saying."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Travis Kelce
Start· mediumTE1 and future Hall of Fame-caliber pass catcher. Elite route craft from the seam and slot, still a volume target.
TE11 with a locked-in 78% snap / 20% target share and a soft LV matchup (24 of 32) in a 24.5-point implied total — clears the TE replacement bar.
- Kelce’s seam-and-slot craft suits the steady-volume role that makes his positional value especially useful.
- The Raiders matchup reinforces a start based on Kelce’s role, rather than asking his name alone to carry the case.
The call
- Role is secure: 78% snap share and a 20% target share through 3 games is the kind of volume that's hard to find at tight end, and he carries no injury designation.
- Matchup leans favorable. LV ranks 24 of 32 in the DvP composite against tight ends, though that rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so don't lean on it too hard.
- Game environment supports him: a 24.5 implied team total as 5.5-point favorites points to plenty of scoring chances, even if a lead could trim late passing volume.
- An 11.8-point projection at TE11 is a borderline TE1 in 12-team leagues. That's enough to confirm the start-lean, but the ceiling isn't elite, hence medium confidence. The headlines are unverified and don't change the call.
Latest on Kelce
Why, yes, that was Matthew Stafford. Here's why all signs pointed to the reigning NFL MVP's music video cameo.
Mahomes completed all 14 of his play-action attempts for 201 yards, including a touchdown, according to ESPN Research.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Terry McLaurin | Travis Kelce |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.810.912.9 | 7.39.511.8 |
| Consensus rank | WR22 | TE11 |
| Opponent vs position | IND · 15 of 323-game sample | LV · 24 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 14 of 32 | 27 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 28 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 15 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Targets | 5 of 32 | 18 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 14 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Target share | 24% | 20% |
| Reception share | 17% | 21% |
| Implied total · spread | 26.0-1.5 | 24.5-5.5 |
| Depth chart | WR1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 77% | 78% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 2–1 |
Recent form
Terry McLaurin — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs SEA | 13.716.719.7 |
| Week 2 | vs DAL | 5.06.07.0 |
| Week 1 | vs PHI | 1.42.43.4 |
Travis Kelce — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs MIA | 11.912.913.9 |
| Week 2 | vs IND | 16.120.625.1 |
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 7.18.610.1 |
Signal breakdown
- 12.9 vs 11.8 projected PPR pointsTerry McLaurin +
- Rank 22 vs 11Travis Kelce +
- Opponent DvP rank 15 vs 24 (32 = softest)Travis Kelce +
- Implied 26.0 vs 24.5 team pointsTerry McLaurin +
- No injury designationseven
- 77% vs 78% snap shareTravis Kelce +
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