Nick Folk or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Shrader — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Spencer Shrader plays in the better game script (23.0 implied team points to 19.8) and projects 8.2 to Folk's 7.8. Folk's edge is the consensus rank, K17 to K17. The gap is narrow.
Nick Folk
7.87.87.8 Projected Points
Spencer Shrader
8.28.28.2 Projected Points
Why Nick Folk
SitVeteran starting kicker. Reliable accuracy and long-track-record consistency in the field-goal role.
Sit — K17 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
- ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has ATL at 19.8 points as 3-point dogs.
Why Spencer Shrader
Toss-Up· mediumStarting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.
K17 at 8.2 projected: dome, 93% accuracy and a 23.0 implied total are fine, but the reported kicking competition caps confidence in the job.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.
The call
- Environment is a plus: retractable roof with a calm forecast either way, so no wind or precipitation tax on a 1.8-of-2.1 field-goal projection plus 2.0 extra points.
- Volume is only adequate — 23.0 implied team total and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game give him a real but unspectacular floor, which is why he lands at K17 rather than a set-and-forget starter.
- Job security is the swing factor: he's listed PK1 with no designation, but colts.com (2026-08-23) described him as "in a close kicking competition," and only one 50-plus make (long 52) means limited bonus-range upside.
- Tipping point: if he's confirmed as the unquestioned kicker on game week, the indoor script makes him a fine streaming start; any hint of a shared job and you take a top-12 kicker instead.
Latest on Shrader
Spencer Shrader remains in a close kicking competition after making both of his field-goal attempts in the game.
5 Colts Things: Seth McGowan, Spencer Shrader, CJ Allen and other notes from preseason Week 2colts.com · Aug 23, 2026Shrader was, and remains, the only kicker on the Colts' initial 53-man roster when it was released Sunday.
Shrader connected on field goals from 60 and 61 yards during the preseason and emerged from a tight competition with Blake Grupe to be the Colts' kicker in 2026.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Nick Folk | Spencer Shrader |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.87.87.8 | 8.28.28.2 |
| Consensus rank | K17 | K17 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.2(2025) | 1.4(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Retractable roof, calm forecast either way |
| Implied total · spread | 19.8+3.0 | 23.0+3.5 |
| Field-goal % | 96.6%(2025) | 92.9%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Signal breakdown
- 7.8 vs 8.2 projected PPR pointsSpencer Shrader +
- Rank 17 vs 17Nick Folk +
- 2.0 vs 2.1 projected attemptsSpencer Shrader +
- 1.2 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameSpencer Shrader +
- 3 mph, 77°F, partly cloudy vs 5 mph, 88°F, cleareven
- Implied 19.8 vs 23.0 team pointsSpencer Shrader +
- No injury designationseven
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