Mark Andrews or Tetairoa McMillan: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

McMillan’s every-down role gives him the edge over Andrews

McMillan is the better start, though Andrews has a real path to closing the gap: his larger share of Baltimore’s targets is especially valuable with a TE1 role built for red-zone mismatches. McMillan’s steadier WR1 workload supports the higher projection, while Andrews faces the tougher matchup and that defensive rating rests on a small sample. The risk is Andrews turning his concentrated targets and Baltimore’s scoring chances into touchdowns while Carolina’s lower scoring outlook caps McMillan’s ceiling.

What flips it: A material cut to McMillan’s every-down role.

AI editor

Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs TEN

Projected Points

Start· medium
Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan

WR16CARvs DET

Projected Points

Start

Mark Andrews’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+200
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Tetairoa McMillan’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-148 / +112
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 67.5
-117 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+115
Anytime Touchdown Props →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DET@
CARSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

A 25% target share and a 28.0 implied team total outweigh a tough-looking TEN matchup (5 of 32) that rests on a thin 3-game sample.

  • Andrews’ red-zone mismatch profile gives his target volume a direct route to scoring upside.
  • The Tennessee matchup rating comes from just three games, so it is a shaky reason to discount Andrews’ role.

The call

  • Usage is the anchor. A 25% target share over 3 games is elite for a tight end, and a 65% snap share keeps him on the field for most pass plays.
  • Game environment is strong. A 28.0 implied team total gives him plenty of scoring chances, and he doesn't need many catches to reach double digits in PPR.
  • The matchup is the main knock. TEN grades 5 of 32 against tight ends, but that rests on only 3 games with 0.25 confidence, so I wouldn't bench a high-target TE over it.
  • Risk: as the TE15 at a 10.0 projection, he sits right at replacement level in 12-team leagues. The -8.5 spread could mean a run-heavy script late in the game, but his target share still clears the typical waiver-wire tight end.

Why Tetairoa McMillan

Start

WR1 and primary target. 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year who set the Panthers rookie receiving record with 1,014 yards, a big-bodied X with elite catch radius.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: DET is the 11th-softest matchup vs WRs, 21% target share.

  • As Carolina’s primary target, McMillan has the more dependable every-down role.
  • His big catch radius gives him a way to make difficult throws count even in a less favorable scoring environment.

Latest on McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, and a simple balance that has created a complex offense for the Panthers

A Top 10 draft pick and an undrafted receiver have come together for a balanced approach on the field, in turn creating a complex offense for Panthers' opponents.

panthers.com · Sep 19, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricMark AndrewsTetairoa McMillan
Projected points
Consensus rankTE15WR16
Opponent vs positionTEN · 5 of 323-game sampleDET · 22 of 323-game sample
Receptions6 of 3229 of 32
Receiving Yards1 of 3229 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 3215 of 32
Targets6 of 3222 of 32
Anytime TD9 of 3214 of 32
Target share25%21%
Reception share25%17%
Implied total · spread28.0-8.522.3+3.0
Depth chartTE1WR1
Snap share65%86%
Start/Sit record1–2—

Recent form

Mark Andrews — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs DAL
Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Tetairoa McMillan — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CLE
Week 2vs ATL
Week 1vs CHI

Signal breakdown

  • 10.0 vs 14.9 projected PPR pointsTetairoa McMillan +
  • Rank 15 vs 16Mark Andrews +
  • Opponent DvP rank 5 vs 22 (32 = softest)Tetairoa McMillan +
  • Implied 28.0 vs 22.3 team pointsMark Andrews +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 65% vs 86% snap shareTetairoa McMillan +

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