Malik Willis or Marcus Mariota: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Mariota — the projection and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Marcus Mariota projects 18.6 to Willis's 11.8 and plays in the better game script (26.0 implied team points to 18.0). Willis's edge is snap share, 100% to 73%. The gap is wide.
Malik Willis
11.811.811.8 Projected Points
Marcus Mariota
18.618.618.6 Projected Points
Malik Willis’s market
Marcus Mariota’s market
Why Malik Willis
SitStarting QB with dual-threat mobility. Strong arm and designed-run value; a career backup signed in free agency to take over the job.
Sit — bench-tier QB at consensus QB21: 18.0 implied team total caps the ceiling, 100% snap share.
- MIN ranks 13 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 18.0 team points as 7.5-point underdogs.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 100% snap share.
Latest on Willis
Willis led the Dolphins in rushing on Sunday.
Transcript: QB Malik Willis Press Conference - September 30miamidolphins.com · Sep 30, 2026Read the full transcript from QB Malik Willis' postgame media availability on September 23, 2026.
Miami's players, coaches say takeaways from 49ers blowout will be building blocks for the rest of the season.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Marcus Mariota
Toss-Up· lowVeteran QB2 with mobility. Proven spot-start bridge who moves the offense on designed runs.
Confirmed Week 4 starter with a healthy 26.0 implied total, but an 18.6 projection sits at the QB1/QB2 line and the DvP read rests on 3 games.
- IND ranks 23 of 32 against QBs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 26.0 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 73% snap share.
The call
- Role is settled for this week: ESPN (2026-10-02) reports Mariota will get at least one more start in Week 4 because Jayden Daniels' return is uncertain, and Mariota carries no injury designation.
- Game environment is the best part of the case. A 26.0 implied team total in a near pick'em (-1.5 spread) points to a competitive, scoring-friendly script with no reason to shut down the passing game.
- The matchup grades mildly soft at 23 of 32 vs QBs. That is only a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't carry much weight.
- What tips it: an 18.6 PPR projection makes him a fringe QB1. Start him over a streamer projected lower or one in a sub-24 implied total. Sit him if your regular QB1 is healthy, since nothing on the sheet separates him from that tier.
Latest on Mariota
Marcus Mariota will get at least one more start in Week 4, as Jayden Daniels' return is uncertain.
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) ruled out vs. ColtsESPN · Oct 2, 2026If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.
Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota, subbing for the injured Jayden Daniels, reminded the NFL that the organization has another former Heisman Trophy winner -- and former No. 2 pick -- who can still play.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Malik Willis | Marcus Mariota |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 11.811.811.8 | 18.618.618.6 |
| Consensus rank | QB21 | — |
| Opponent vs position | MIN · 13 of 323-game sample | IND · 23 of 323-game sample |
| Passing Yards | 26 of 32 | 31 of 32 |
| Passing TDs | 4 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Passing Completions | 7 of 32 | 22 of 32 |
| Passing Attempts | 29 of 32 | 19 of 32 |
| Interceptions | 1 of 32 | 29 of 32 |
| Implied total · spread | 18.0+7.5 | 26.0-1.5 |
| Depth chart | QB1 | QB2 |
| Snap share | 100% | 73% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Malik Willis — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs KC | 10.010.010.0 |
| Week 2 | vs SF | 12.512.512.5 |
| Week 1 | vs LV | 16.716.716.7 |
Marcus Mariota — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs SEA | 20.420.420.4 |
| Week 2 | vs DAL | 8.78.78.7 |
| Week 1 | vs PHI | DNP |
Signal breakdown
- 11.8 vs 18.6 projected PPR pointsMarcus Mariota +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 13 vs 23 (32 = softest)Marcus Mariota +
- Implied 18.0 vs 26.0 team pointsMarcus Mariota +
- No injury designationseven
- 100% vs 73% snap shareMalik Willis +
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