Luther Burden III or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Andrews' red-zone role nudges him ahead of Burden

Start Andrews by a narrow edge: the projected gap is small enough to be noise, but his stronger standing at tight end and Baltimore’s more favorable scoring setup break the tie. His red-zone mismatch gives that team context extra value, while Burden’s outside WR2 role and manufactured-touch YAC ability make him a credible alternative. Andrews’ main risk is that his snap and target role is based on only two games, so it may not hold. Burden’s explosive-play profile can erase the difference with one big touch.

What flips it: Burden turns a manufactured touch into an explosive gain or touchdown.

AI editor

Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III

WR27CHIvs PHI

Projected Points

Toss-Up
Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium

Luther Burden III’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-132 / +104
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 35.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+380
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Mark Andrews’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+100 / -127
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 40.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+125
Anytime Touchdown Props →
PHI@
CHIMon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
BAL@
DALSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Luther Burden III

Toss-Up

WR2 and outside starter opposite Rome Odunze. Explosive yards-after-catch threat with manufactured-touch usage.

Toss-up — WR27 consensus, projects WR37 this week: PHI is the 11th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 24.0 implied team total.

  • His manufactured touches give him a way to create value after the catch, not just by winning a conventional target.
  • The PHI matchup read is tough, but its two-game sample carries no confidence.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

25% target share and 72% snaps in a 27.0-point implied offense make Andrews a viable TE1 fringe start at TE15 despite a neutral DAL matchup.

  • Andrews’ red-zone mismatch makes Baltimore’s stronger scoring outlook especially useful.
  • A TE1 role with quarterback rapport gives Andrews a positional edge, even with a near-level projection.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 25% target share over 2 games is elite for a tight end, and his 72% snap share locks him into the base role.
  • Game environment helps. A 27.0 implied team total with a -2.5 spread points to a competitive, scoring-friendly script with red-zone chances.
  • The matchup is neutral at best. DAL ranks 21 of 32 in the DvP composite, but that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
  • Risk: the 10.2 projection and TE15 rank put him in streamer territory, and the 2-game usage sample could regress. He still clears a typical replacement TE, and no injury designation removes availability concerns.

Head-to-head stats

MetricLuther Burden IIIMark Andrews
Projected points
Consensus rankWR27TE15
Opponent vs positionPHI · 11 of 322-game sampleDAL · 21 of 322-game sample
Receptions7 of 3221 of 32
Receiving Yards13 of 3219 of 32
Receiving TDs15 of 3226 of 32
Targets7 of 3211 of 32
Anytime TD15 of 3226 of 32
Target share21%25%
Reception share20%26%
Implied total · spread24.0-1.527.0-2.5
Depth chartWR2TE1
Snap share65%72%
Start/Sit record0–11–1

Recent form

Luther Burden III — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Mark Andrews — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Signal breakdown

  • 11.2 vs 10.2 projected PPR pointsLuther Burden III +
  • Rank 27 vs 15Mark Andrews +
  • Opponent DvP rank 11 vs 21 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 24.0 vs 27.0 team pointsMark Andrews +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 65% vs 72% snap shareMark Andrews +

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