George Kittle or Mike Evans: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Vegas has San Francisco at a 29.0 implied total as an 11.5-point favorite; that's a top-shelf scoring environment and Kittle is the red-zone target who converts it.
• Consensus TE7 at 12.7 projected points clears the bar for a 12-team PPR starting tight end — you're not finding that on the wire.
• The Achilles issue is behind him: full participant Friday and no game designation, so he's not a game-time call.
• Only real risk is the 47% snap share through two games — if the 49ers manage his workload in a likely blowout, the ceiling gets capped, but his 16% target share keeps the floor intact.

The call

• The offense projects for a 29.0 implied total as an 11.5-point favorite, and the ARI matchup grades 24 of 32 (softest = 32), so there's real scoring volume available — but the DvP read is only a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so don't lean hard on it.
• Usage is the problem: 65% snap share and an 18% target share over two games is complementary, not featured, work, and that's exactly why he lands at WR31 with a 12.5-point projection.
• The hip is the swing factor — per NBC Sports (PFT, 9/21) it "will have to be managed this week" after he exited Week 2 and did not return. A managed workload plus a potential blowout script (-11.5) invites early rest and a run-heavy fourth quarter.
• Tip-in his favor: the reported Demarcus Robinson ankle injury thins the receiver room, which should concentrate targets if Evans clears the Questionable tag with no snap cap. Confirm his practice status before locking lineups.