Kyle Pitts Sr. or Makai Lemon: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Pitts — the consensus rank and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.
Kyle Pitts Sr. is the higher consensus play (TE7 to WR50) and draws the softer matchup (NO ranks 26 of 32 against TEs; LAR ranks 12). Lemon's edge is snap share, 66% to 53%. The gap is comfortable.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
TE7ATLvs NO
4.45.97.4 Projected Points
Toss-Up· low
Makai Lemon
WR50PHIvs LAR
5.06.27.5 Projected Points
Toss-Up
Kyle Pitts Sr.’s market
Makai Lemon’s market
REC
O/U 2.5
-141 / +111
REC YDS
O/U 25.5
-115 / -110
ATD
Anytime TD
+550
Why Kyle Pitts Sr.
Toss-Up· lowTE1 and vertical seam threat. Rare size-speed mismatch profile with high-volume target share in the passing game.
TE7 consensus and a soft NO matchup (26 of 32) argue start, but an 8% target share on 53% snaps backs the model's sit-lean.
- NO ranks 26 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 2.5-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share.
The call
- Consensus ranks him TE7 at 7.4 projected PPR points. That is starter territory at a thin position in 12-team leagues, and it is the main factor against the house sit-lean.
- His usage is the problem. A 53% snap share and 8% target share over 3 games is part-time, low-volume work that does not support a top-8 TE ranking on its own.
- The matchup is favorable on paper (NO rates 26 of 32 vs TEs), but it rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence. A 21.5 implied team total and 2.5 spread suggest a middling, competitive script.
- What tips it: if your alternative TE has a locked-in route and target role, sit Pitts per the model. If you are choosing among streamers with similar or thinner usage, his TE7 ranking and soft matchup make him the start.
Latest on Pitts
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Falcons-Packers on "Thursday Night Football."
ESPN · Sep 24, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Makai Lemon
Toss-UpRookie WR3 in slot-heavy role. Quick separator with reliable hands and yards-after-catch juice.
Toss-up — WR50 consensus, projects WR66 this week: 11% target share, 7.5 PPR projected vs LAR.
- LAR ranks 12 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed WR-3 on the latest depth chart with a 66% snap share.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Kyle Pitts Sr. | Makai Lemon |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.45.97.4 | 5.06.27.5 |
| Consensus rank | TE7 | WR50 |
| Opponent vs position | NO · 26 of 323-game sample | LAR · 12 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 31 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 30 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 18 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Targets | 31 of 32 | 4 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 18 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Target share | 8% | 11% |
| Reception share | 4% | 13% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.5+2.5 | 23.0+1.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR3 |
| Snap share | 53% | 66% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–1+2 toss-ups | 0–1 |
Recent form
Kyle Pitts Sr. — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs GB | 0.51.01.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CAR | 1.52.02.5 |
| Week 1 | vs PIT | 0.00.00.0 |
Makai Lemon — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CHI | 2.94.45.9 |
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 0.91.41.9 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | -0.51.02.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.4 vs 7.5 projected PPR pointsMakai Lemon +
- Rank 7 vs 50Kyle Pitts Sr. +
- Opponent DvP rank 26 vs 12 (32 = softest)Kyle Pitts Sr. +
- Implied 21.5 vs 23.0 team pointsMakai Lemon +
- No injury designationseven
- 53% vs 66% snap shareMakai Lemon +
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