Kyle Pitts Sr. or Luther Burden III: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Burden — the projection and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Luther Burden III projects 12.6 to Pitts's 7.4 and plays in the better game script (27.0 implied team points to 21.5). Pitts's edge is the consensus rank, TE7 to WR27. The gap is comfortable.
In standard scoring this is a coin flip.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
TE7ATLvs NO
4.45.97.4 Projected Points
Toss-Up· low
Luther Burden III
WR27CHIvs NYJ
7.710.112.6 Projected Points
Start· medium
Kyle Pitts Sr.’s market
Luther Burden III’s market
Why Kyle Pitts Sr.
Toss-Up· lowTE1 and vertical seam threat. Rare size-speed mismatch profile with high-volume target share in the passing game.
TE7 consensus and a soft NO matchup (26 of 32) argue start, but an 8% target share on 53% snaps backs the model's sit-lean.
- NO ranks 26 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 2.5-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share.
The call
- Consensus ranks him TE7 at 7.4 projected PPR points. That is starter territory at a thin position in 12-team leagues, and it is the main factor against the house sit-lean.
- His usage is the problem. A 53% snap share and 8% target share over 3 games is part-time, low-volume work that does not support a top-8 TE ranking on its own.
- The matchup is favorable on paper (NO rates 26 of 32 vs TEs), but it rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence. A 21.5 implied team total and 2.5 spread suggest a middling, competitive script.
- What tips it: if your alternative TE has a locked-in route and target role, sit Pitts per the model. If you are choosing among streamers with similar or thinner usage, his TE7 ranking and soft matchup make him the start.
Latest on Pitts
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Falcons-Packers on "Thursday Night Football."
ESPN · Sep 24, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Luther Burden III
Start· mediumWR2 and outside starter opposite Rome Odunze. Explosive yards-after-catch threat with manufactured-touch usage.
26% target share as WR-2 on a 27.0 implied-total offense favored by 8.5; WR27 projection (12.6) clears flex bar despite neutral matchup.
- NYJ ranks 14 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
- Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 64% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the driver: a 26% target share over 3 games is WR1-type volume, even with a 64% snap share that leaves room to grow.
- Game environment is strong. A 27.0 implied team total and a -8.5 spread point to plenty of scoring chances. The one risk is a lopsided lead that drains late passing volume.
- The matchup is middling. NYJ ranks 14 of 32 in DvP, but that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so don't weight it heavily either way.
- At 12.6 projected PPR points and WR27 with no injury designation, he is a solid WR3/flex start over typical replacement options in 12-team leagues.
Latest on Burden
VideoESPN · Sep 30, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Kyle Pitts Sr. | Luther Burden III |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.45.97.4 | 7.710.112.6 |
| Consensus rank | TE7 | WR27 |
| Opponent vs position | NO · 26 of 323-game sample | NYJ · 14 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 31 of 32 | 20 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 30 of 32 | 4 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 18 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Targets | 31 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 18 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Target share | 8% | 26% |
| Reception share | 4% | 23% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.5+2.5 | 27.0-8.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR2 |
| Snap share | 53% | 64% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–1+2 toss-ups | 0–1 |
Recent form
Kyle Pitts Sr. — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs GB | 0.51.01.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CAR | 1.52.02.5 |
| Week 1 | vs PIT | 0.00.00.0 |
Luther Burden III — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs PHI | 12.816.319.8 |
| Week 2 | vs MIN | 3.24.76.2 |
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 4.57.09.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.4 vs 12.6 projected PPR pointsLuther Burden III +
- Rank 7 vs 27Kyle Pitts Sr. +
- Opponent DvP rank 26 vs 14 (32 = softest)Kyle Pitts Sr. +
- Implied 21.5 vs 27.0 team pointsLuther Burden III +
- No injury designationseven
- 53% vs 64% snap shareLuther Burden III +
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