Kenny Gainwell or T.J. Hockenson: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Hockenson’s primary-target role edges Gainwell’s receiving-back appeal

Their projections are level, but Hockenson’s TE1 role and primary-target usage give that outlook a sturdier base than Gainwell’s change-of-pace job. Gainwell’s softer matchup and passing-down work keep him in play, yet his RB2 role makes the call more dependent on receiving touches. Minnesota’s stronger scoring outlook helps Hockenson, with the risk that a comfortable lead trims his opportunities.

What flips it: Gainwell taking over more of the passing-down work.

AI editor

Kenny Gainwell

Kenny Gainwell

RB30TBvs GB

Projected Points

Sit
T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson

TE18MINvs MIA

Projected Points

Start

Kenny Gainwell’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+325

T.J. Hockenson’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+155
Anytime Touchdown Props →
GB@
TBSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
MIA@
MINSun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ETView the game →

Why Kenny Gainwell

Sit

RB2 and primary kick returner. Change-of-pace back with heavy passing-down usage and receiving production out of the backfield.

Sit — RB30 consensus, projects RB41 this week: GB is the 9th-softest matchup vs RBs, 10% target share.

  • Passing-down usage gives Gainwell a way to contribute even if his change-of-pace role limits rushing work.
  • The softer matchup is a real counterweight, though it doesn’t erase the role gap.

Why T.J. Hockenson

Start

TE1 and primary middle-of-field target. Route-savvy seam threat with high-volume usage when healthy.

Start — TE18 consensus, projects TE19 this week: 25.5 implied team total, 19% target share.

  • As Minnesota’s primary middle-of-field target, Hockenson has a clear route to involvement beyond scoring chances.
  • His TE1 workload is a steadier foundation than Gainwell’s RB2 role at the same projection.

Latest on Hockenson

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ESPN · Sep 23, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricKenny GainwellT.J. Hockenson
Projected points
Consensus rankRB30TE18
Opponent vs positionGB · 24 of 323-game sampleMIA · 17 of 323-game sample
Rushing Yards30 of 32—
Rushing TDs32 of 32—
Rushing Attempts32 of 32—
Receptions3 of 3216 of 32
Receiving Yards14 of 3228 of 32
Anytime TD31 of 3218 of 32
Receiving TDs—18 of 32
Targets—6 of 32
Target share10%19%
Reception share10%22%
Implied total · spread23.0+1.525.5-7.5
Depth chartRB2TE1
Snap share42%73%
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up1–0

Recent form

Kenny Gainwell — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs MIN
Week 2vs CLE
Week 1vs CIN

T.J. Hockenson — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs TB
Week 2vs CHI
Week 1vs GB

Signal breakdown

  • 8.1 vs 8.1 projected PPR pointsKenny Gainwell +
  • Rank 30 vs 18T.J. Hockenson +
  • Opponent DvP rank 24 vs 17 (32 = softest)Kenny Gainwell +
  • Implied 23.0 vs 25.5 team pointsT.J. Hockenson +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 42% vs 73% snap shareT.J. Hockenson +

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