Keenan Allen or Sam LaPorta: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start LaPorta — the consensus rank and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.

Sam LaPorta is the higher consensus play (TE8 to WR59) and plays a 90% snap share to Allen's 64%. Allen's edge is the matchup, 30 of 32 to 18. The gap is comfortable.

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen

WR59INDvs WSH

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta

TE8DETvs CAR

Projected Points

Start· high

Keenan Allen’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-131 / +103
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 34.5
-112 / -112
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+265
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Sam LaPorta’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-112 / -114
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 47.5
-109 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+185
Anytime Touchdown Props →
IND@
WSHSun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETView the game →
DET@
CARSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Keenan Allen

Toss-Up· low

Veteran possession WR in a crowded receiver room. Elite route craft and reliable hands on third downs.

Soft WSH matchup (30 of 32) and 21% target share back the start-lean, but a WR59 consensus rank and 11.3-pt projection make him flex-only.

  • WSH ranks 30 of 32 against WRs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
  • Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 64% snap share.

The call

  • Matchup is the main case for starting him. WSH grades 30 of 32 against receivers, but that rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it is a thin edge rather than a locked-in boost.
  • His usage is real. A 21% target share as the WR-2 gives him a PPR floor, but a 64% snap share means he isn't on the field every down.
  • Game environment is neutral to positive. A 24.5 implied team total and a 1.5-point spread point to a competitive game with steady passing volume, not a blowout either way.
  • The consensus rank caps the upside. WR59 with an 11.3-point projection sits at replacement level in 12-team leagues. Start him in a flex over a lesser option projected in the single digits; bench him if you have a WR in the top 40.

Latest on Allen

Sources: Colts' Keenan Allen faces minimum 3-game suspension

Colts wide receiver Keenan Allen, who was formally charged last week with two misdemeanor offenses stemming from his drunken driving arrest in downtown Indianapolis last month, is facing a minimum three-game suspension, sources told ESPN.

ESPN · Sep 20, 2026
Colts' Keenan Allen formally charged, faces two misdemeanors

Colts wide receiver Keenan Allen was formally charged with two misdemeanor drunken driving charges on Wednesday.

ESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Sam LaPorta

Start· high

TE1 and pass-catching mismatch. Reliable seam and intermediate target when healthy.

TE8 projection (11.2 PPR) with a 90% snap share and 18% target share on a 25.3 implied total — locked-in every-week TE1.

  • CAR ranks 18 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 25.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 90% snap share.

The call

  • Role is the anchor: a 90% snap share and 18% target share over three games is elite usage at a thin position, and he carries no injury designation.
  • Game environment helps: a 25.3 implied team total as a 3-point favorite points to plenty of scoring chances and a neutral-to-positive script.
  • The matchup is middling at 18 of 32 vs TEs, but that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle against his usage.
  • At TE8 with an 11.2-point projection, he clears typical replacement-level tight ends comfortably, consistent with the model's start-lean.

Latest on LaPorta

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricKeenan AllenSam LaPorta
Projected points
Consensus rankWR59TE8
Opponent vs positionWSH · 30 of 323-game sampleCAR · 18 of 323-game sample
Receptions32 of 328 of 32
Receiving Yards30 of 3211 of 32
Receiving TDs31 of 3227 of 32
Targets28 of 3216 of 32
Anytime TD31 of 3226 of 32
Target share21%18%
Reception share20%18%
Implied total · spread24.5+1.525.3-3.0
Depth chartWR2TE1
Snap share64%90%
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up1–2

Recent form

Keenan Allen — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs HOU
Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Sam LaPorta — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs NYJ
Week 2vs BUF
Week 1vs NO

Signal breakdown

  • 11.3 vs 11.2 projected PPR pointsKeenan Allen +
  • Rank 59 vs 8Sam LaPorta +
  • Opponent DvP rank 30 vs 18 (32 = softest)Keenan Allen +
  • Implied 24.5 vs 25.3 team pointsSam LaPorta +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 64% vs 90% snap shareSam LaPorta +

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