Kalif Raymond or Luther Burden III: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Burden’s WR2 role gives him the edge over Raymond

Burden gets the nod because his WR2 role and manufactured-touch ability give him more ways to turn opportunities into production than Raymond’s slot/return role. The preference is narrow: they share the same offense, game environment and neutral matchup, while Raymond’s slightly heavier snap share keeps him firmly in flex consideration. Burden’s projection lead looks more decisive than the underlying case; the small usage advantage is the separator, and his uneven recent output makes a quiet game the main risk.

What flips it: A role change that removes Burden from the WR2 spot.

AI editor

Kalif Raymond

Kalif Raymond

WRCHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium
Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III

WR27CHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium

Kalif Raymond’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-108 / -118
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 31.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+340
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Luther Burden III’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+102 / -131
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 46.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+200
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Kalif Raymond

Start· medium

Veteran WR3 and slot/return specialist. Undersized speed piece with quickness and punt-return value.

23% target share and a 27.0 implied total as an 8.5-point favorite outweigh a neutral NYJ matchup; 10.1 projection plays as a flex.

  • Raymond’s veteran reliability and slot work give him a useful path to targets even if the outside options dominate.
  • His return role adds another way to stay involved beyond receiving snaps.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 23% target share on 66% of snaps over 3 games gives him volume well above what a WR-3 depth-chart slot suggests.
  • Game environment helps. A 27.0 implied team total means scoring chances, though a -8.5 spread could mean a run-heavy fourth quarter that caps late volume.
  • The matchup is roughly neutral. NYJ ranks 14 of 32 vs WRs, but that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't swing the call either way.
  • The 10.1 PPR projection makes him a viable flex over typical replacement options, with no injury designation. The WR-3 role and modest snap share keep the ceiling limited, so confidence stays medium.

Latest on Raymond

How to bet Eagles-Bears on MNF: Analysis, tips and favorite plays

Odds and analysis to help you bet Eagles-Bears on "Monday Night Football."

ESPN · Sep 28, 2026
Kalif Raymond proving to be reliable veteran target for Bears offense

Despite being the Bears' leading receiver in their Week 1 win over the Panthers, Kalif Raymond is focused more on the team's success than his personal stats, saying, "I don’t really look at that stuff ... we won, and that’s all I’m thinking about."

chicagobears.com · Sep 18, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Luther Burden III

Start· medium

WR2 and outside starter opposite Rome Odunze. Explosive yards-after-catch threat with manufactured-touch usage.

26% target share as WR-2 on a 27.0 implied-total offense favored by 8.5; WR27 projection (12.6) clears flex bar despite neutral matchup.

  • Burden’s yards-after-catch ability can turn short or manufactured touches into meaningful gains.
  • The WR2 role gives him a stronger foundation for opportunity than a rotational slot/return profile.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 26% target share over 3 games is WR1-type volume, even with a 64% snap share that leaves room to grow.
  • Game environment is strong. A 27.0 implied team total and a -8.5 spread point to plenty of scoring chances. The one risk is a lopsided lead that drains late passing volume.
  • The matchup is middling. NYJ ranks 14 of 32 in DvP, but that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so don't weight it heavily either way.
  • At 12.6 projected PPR points and WR27 with no injury designation, he is a solid WR3/flex start over typical replacement options in 12-team leagues.

Latest on Burden

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricKalif RaymondLuther Burden III
Projected points
Consensus rank—WR27
Opponent vs positionNYJ · 14 of 323-game sampleNYJ · 14 of 323-game sample
Receptions20 of 3220 of 32
Receiving Yards4 of 324 of 32
Receiving TDs15 of 3215 of 32
Targets15 of 3215 of 32
Anytime TD14 of 3214 of 32
Target share23%26%
Reception share29%23%
Implied total · spread27.0-8.527.0-8.5
Depth chartWR3WR2
Snap share66%64%
Start/Sit record—0–1

Recent form

Kalif Raymond — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Luther Burden III — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Signal breakdown

  • 10.1 vs 12.6 projected PPR pointsLuther Burden III +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 14 vs 14 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 27.0 vs 27.0 team pointseven
  • No injury designationseven
  • 66% vs 64% snap shareKalif Raymond +

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