Justice Hill or Rhamondre Stevenson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Stevenson's lead-back and receiving role beats Hill's better game environment

Start Stevenson: his lead-back workload and receiving role give him a sturdier weekly floor than Hill's change-of-pace usage. Hill's Baltimore game environment is the counterargument, but his limited target involvement makes that scoring edge less valuable in PPR. The projection gap reflects a real role separation at running back, not just noisy scoring. Stevenson's main risk is New England's lower scoring ceiling limiting his touchdown chances; the matchup lean toward him is supporting evidence, not the foundation of the call.

What flips it: A substantial reduction in Stevenson's lead-back workload.

AI editor

Justice Hill

Justice Hill

RB51BALvs TEN

Projected Points

Sit
Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB26NEvs BUF

Projected Points

Start· medium

Justice Hill’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+550
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Rhamondre Stevenson’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 31.5
-112 / -112
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 2.5
-128 / +100
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 18.5
-109 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+135
Anytime Touchdown Props →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Justice Hill

Sit

Change-of-pace RB2 and passing-down back. Receiving chops and pass protection in third-down packages.

Sit — bench-tier RB at consensus RB51: 4% target share, 5.4 PPR projected vs TEN.

  • Baltimore's favored, high-scoring setup gives Hill a plausible touchdown path despite his limited role.
  • His passing-down skill set offers a route to PPR value if he gets third-down work.

Why Rhamondre Stevenson

Start· medium

RB1 and lead back. Physical between-the-tackles runner with reliable receiving-game involvement.

Flex-worthy RB26 with a 58% snap share, 13% target share and a softer-leaning run-defense matchup (24 of 32) in a 23.3-point implied offense.

  • Stevenson's lead-back job gives him more dependable rushing volume than Hill's change-of-pace role.
  • His receiving involvement gives him another way to contribute if New England's rushing game stalls.

The call

  • Role is stable: a 58% snap share and 13% target share over 3 games give him a reliable PPR floor through the passing game, not just carries.
  • The matchup leans soft at 24 of 32 in the DvP composite, but it rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so treat it as a mild tailwind rather than a smash spot.
  • A 23.3 implied team total points to a competent scoring environment with goal-line chances, supporting the 11.6-point projection.
  • At RB26 he is a flex play, not a locked RB2. Start him over typical replacement-level options, but he is benchable if you have a clearly higher-ranked flex.

Latest on Stevenson

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricJustice HillRhamondre Stevenson
Projected points
Consensus rankRB51RB26
Opponent vs positionTEN · 17 of 323-game sampleBUF · 24 of 323-game sample
Rushing Yards25 of 3215 of 32
Rushing TDs17 of 3217 of 32
Rushing Attempts31 of 3219 of 32
Receptions6 of 3229 of 32
Receiving Yards9 of 3231 of 32
Anytime TD13 of 3230 of 32
Target share4%13%
Reception share6%16%
Implied total · spread28.0-8.523.3+3.0
Depth chartRB2RB1
Snap share42%58%
Start/Sit record—1–1+1 toss-up

Recent form

Justice Hill — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs DAL
Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Rhamondre Stevenson — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs JAX
Week 2vs PIT
Week 1vs SEA

Signal breakdown

  • 5.4 vs 11.6 projected PPR pointsRhamondre Stevenson +
  • Rank 51 vs 26Rhamondre Stevenson +
  • Opponent DvP rank 17 vs 24 (32 = softest)Rhamondre Stevenson +
  • Implied 28.0 vs 23.3 team pointsJustice Hill +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 42% vs 58% snap shareRhamondre Stevenson +

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